CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Volatility to the max, wow! I am tired of just looking at the market, can’t imagine how all the traders are feeling!

Nothing has changed in the big picture with all the volatility, and my LT view remains the same until we have a significant upside Weekly Close.

 We now have a 38.2% correction from the highs, and the next couple of weeks will be critical to see if we have bottomed on the Weekly.  

 Once the correction is over, my ultimate target for corn is a new ATH possibly breaching $9.00 intra week.

Soft commodities having a tendency to extend further than one expects, so who knows just how high it could go!

 The rallies remain selling opportunities (profit taking) and buy the dips (getting long)! 

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

Volatility is here to stay no matter which road map plays out, either the triangle or the flat correction.

Yes, I say correction because although the moves have been massive, we are yet to take out the highs!  

 Although we have had a big upside move based on fundamentals, I would still advise taking some cash off the table while staying net long until we confirm the “new” Bull trend.

 If we are lucky enough to see sub $5.20, again, you will need to own it and wear it until we trade north of $8.00!

 I remain a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies!

Weekly WM Continuous Close

This chart has made a perfect 38.20% correction and has bounced like a champ off the lows!

 Continue to use the weakness to price, price & price some more with potential targets over R4000.  


Weekly YM Continuous Close

 After significant support at the 38.20% retracement, I am keen as mustard to buy all the dips!  

The chart is in a corrective phase and looking to break out to the upside and HARD!

 “Note I am not sure which expiry, but these charts lead me to believe that WM will rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to meet YM!” – not aging well yet!

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

When trading US wheat, patience is the key, and we are waiting to buy until further notice.

 However, if you have to partake in this market, I would buy the dip sub $5.70.

 When this chart eventually rallies, it will rally hard and fast, and most won’t be able to get long!


Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

Buy down to $6.13 if the chart gets that low.

I am super keen to own it!

 Wheat is set to rally hard in the coming months, and opportunity beckons! 


Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

This chart has two outcomes IMO, it’s either going to play out in a straight rally or take everyone to the cleaners in a triangle.

If it’s the rally, you can only get long on Daily close over -$0.19, and if it the triangle buy the dip as momentum buying will only get you killed!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

Continued consolidation on this chart still has me bullish, and I would not sell it at all.

 We are patiently waiting to buy a decent dip!  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

I am sticking with both views for now.

 This chart seems to be making a classical irregular flat formation.

 Buy at best with upside targets at €215, and this is a very ST trade, as once the kick is done, there should be more downside.  So – let’s see how this ages. (still in with a shout)

 The leg lower will be the chart’s last lower before a decent rally of €30+.


CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

I remain uber happy that the R13.90 level is holding and holding very well as we are yet to see a move back under R14.00 for now.


R14.48 remains the Weekly close level we need to get over before there can be any further talk of a Bull market.

The above coincides with the 55 & 233 Week EMA’s that have converged.

Clearing this hurdle will be nothing short of mammoth.  


I am still seeking consolidation between R13.90 – R14.50 for another week (the longer, the better) before making its push higher.

The status quo remains until further notice.

The chart is consolidating before looking to move north.

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart remains bullish.

 After failing at R14.53, only R0.02 shy of our R14.55 level, this chart could look to trade back to sub R14.08, but we would look to buy a dip of this nature.

 This chart still has a few potential formations that can play out right now, but R14.55 is what we need to clear, then we will def test R15.66while over that, this chart could make new ATH’s.

It remains early days! 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The 240 min traded just shy of our target at R14.55 and, for now, seems to be making a classic Irregular Flat formation.

 If the above plays out for another week between R14.00 – R14.55, the chart will have good impetus taking out the R14.55 level, and a  daily close over this will see us shoot to R15.66!


Euro/USD Weekly Close

For now, the chart is trading in a lovely zig-zag pattern and I remain of the opinion that this is a consolidation to trade higher.

 I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?


 As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.


US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No change in commentary

 The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower  for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.


 My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.



SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No change in commentary

 This chart looks good, with 10.30% having held amazingly well on the Daily & Weekly close.

 We should see a decent consolidation over the next few weeks.

My greater view is that we will see the chart rally from current levels.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!!

 On the downside, this chart is well overbought. 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

I would love the 1.90% level to hold firm in the coming weeks, transitory inflation or not.

 I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.


 Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken!