CJS Securities

FX & FI Technicals

04 October 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

After what feels like a more subdued week the market struggled to settle over R15.00.

The chart has run into some very strong resistance around the EMA’s and as it stands I am now looking for a pullback in the next week or two.  

The trading ranges remain HUGE!

The inverted H&S formation is still in play with targets at R15.78, this is within a much bigger H&S formation which has targets at R11.77.

Good luck and DO NOT get sucked into market volatility right now and remember you do not have to have a position.

All eyes will be on Friday’s Non- Farm Payrolls!

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

Based on the charts current formation I feel there is room for a downward correction toward the R14.55 level.

With the big inverted H&S formation playing out Scenario #2 from now 4 weeks ago is still on the cards.

Scenario #2.

The current formation is an irregular flat bear correction that trades back to the R14.20’s, then trades up hard and fast to print between R15.70 – R15.86 to complete the correction while getting everyone and their dog long USD, only to collapse and come down to test the yearly lows and possibly print as low as R11.50.  

Both scenarios will have one wondering because after the ferocity of last week’s fall, there is very little confidence in this chart.

Only a daily close over R15.62 would negate scenario #2.

As with the weekly chart, I would not hold any position now for more than R0.30.

Please don’t wipe yourself out as there will still be plenty of opportunities to come before year-end.     

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The chart has struggled to maintain momentum above R15.00 over the last week, and although I am not very bearish with the current formation I could easily see the chart trade back to the R14.50’s.

This view from last week fell short with R0.01, a tragedy if there ever was one. –“Right now the only trade I would put on is selling up scale from  R15.14 – R15.20 with a stop over R15.2350.

Although I am itching to put on a trade, I don’t see any decent levels which will provide a sufficient RR.

For those that must trade I would be short close to R15.00 and long sub R14.55.

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The $1.16 level is holding on by a thread and with Non-Farm Payrolls out this week.

I would suggest keeping a tight stop sub $1.16 until we have clarity.

I still like a move higher but knowing where I am wrong is far more important than being right!

The general view remains long the EURO until we have a daily close under $1.16!

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

Whiplash, and plenty of it as false breaks abound.

With Non -Farm Payrolls due out o Friday I would leave this chart well alone until then unless we see a move sub 90.

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long also and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

 #No Change in Commentary

This 10.30% level is sticky as hell, but if it does not hold, then there will still be a decent amount of downside in this chart over the next 12 months.

The ending diagonal formation will be off the table under 10.20%, and right now, I must confess that 9.22% looks very much on the charts.  

Having said all of the above, don’t panic!

The chart is now oversold but can continue lower before kicking, but overall, I would expect a kickback to 10.90% before printing the 9.22%, so you should have time, at least I hope so! – ‘I truly hope this ages well.’ 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

With Non – Farm Payrolls out on Friday who knows where we head in the ST, but the below view is playing out nicely, albeit for now.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!