CJS Securities

FX & FI Technicals

02 November 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Apologies for being away last week, but I am back and with not much to add as these charts have been playing out perfectly.

The pullback to R14.37 was a little deeper than expected but was very short lived.

The inverted H&S formation has targets from R15.50 – R15.86 and it is with these targets in mind that I would look to take profit over R15.50 in what has been a great run.  

The chart still has a potentially “bigger picture” formation that needs to play out and we are now very happy to sit back and allow the price to play out over the next 6 – 10 trading days before making our next call. 

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

As mentioned in the Weekly commentary the chart traded around R0.13 lower than expected but was always within the correction range.

We are very close to the targets (R15.70 – R15.86) set out in our now long running scenario #2 and we would look to take the cash and go square.

I feel the need to square up based on the fact that I do not trust this chart as there is a possibility that we could be experiencing an irregular flat formation and if so this would lead to a pullback to the low R14’s once the MT top has been printed.  

In closing there are too many variables and hence taking the money right now just feels so right!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

We were long and stopped and as the saying goes “so are the days of our lives”.

I know that micro manging positions is very difficult, but this will not stop us from trying and so we have a new trade to look at on a ST basis.

Sell R15.62 – R15.86 with a stop over R15.88.

Targets will be at R14.23 and this trade will have a 1089 / 100 risk reward! 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

I honestly have no idea what I am looking at on this chart because at a glance the chart would appear bearish but yet it lacks follow through.

IMO we should see this chart look to target the top of the range again, but in all honesty I would not put money on it.

We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No Change in Commentary  

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

The chart has a nice rounding bottom and we could potentially look at targeting the 11.40% level.  

The current formation has more than two potential outcomes and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view while the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid.   

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary  

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!