FX & FI Technicals
08 November 2021
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
I am very happy that I called for profits to be taken last week as this chart has now given me greater impetus on my LT view.
The ST targets have been reached and while there is every chance the chart will again look to test R15.50 and potentially even R15.80, in my bigger picture view I would look to sell a rally of this nature as I currently feel strongly that this chart is not yet ready for its “major break” higher.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
As with the Weekly chart I am super chuffed that I advised taking the cash after what was a great rally and going square.
Last week I mentioned that I was not sure what we are looking at and that there is a possibility that we could be experiencing an irregular flat formation, right now I am pretty damn sure we are in the irregular flat and that this chart has an opportunity to rally again and test R15.50 and potentially even R15.80, but a that a rally of this nature would be a great sell IMO.
In closing if you are keen to buy the USD keep you stop under R14.88!
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
Firstly, it’s a pity the chart failed at R15.50 and had zero follow through, but people based on my longer term views I have a trade that might work for you and hopefully we have not missed the bus with this morning’s low being R14.9367.
Buy R15.00 – R14.90 with a stop under R14.8650.
Targets will be at R15.47 – R15.66 and this trade will have a 35 / 10 risk reward!
Fingers crossed we can execute.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
I honestly have no idea what I am looking at on this chart because at a glance the chart would appear bearish but yet it lacks follow through.
IMO we should see this chart look to target the top of the range again, but in all honesty I would not put money on it.
We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
Looking at how this chart is moving I can’t stress just how important the 95 level is on a weekly close!
The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
I am not happy with what I am looking at and this is either a correction to trade higher or we could be staring at the start of a move that could take this chart sub 9.00%!
The current formation has more than two potential outcomes and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view while the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid, I hope!
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
I still favour the below view but this chart is not very pretty at all.
I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80% that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.
Use an SL under 1.70%.
Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.
As for now the downtrend is still intact!