FX & FI Technicals
15 November 2021
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
If it’s volatility that you want, you got it!
I believe that this chart is not ready for its “major break” higher yet!
In the ST, there are too many potential outcomes for me to mention, hence why I am happy to sit out for the time being and allow the chart to develop as it pleases.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
I am well aware that many people are calling for the inverted H&S to play out, but I have seen these formations fail more than I have seen them work, and it’s with this mind that currently, I am struggling to see this chart consistently trade over R16.00 in the ST / MT.
Overall though, I would not be surprised for this chart to make one last assault on the R15.50 level and potentially even breakthrough, but as previously mentioned, I would be a seller of the USD should we see those levels.
In closing, if you are keen to buy the USD, keep your stop under R14.88! – missed this with R0.0150
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
We seem to have had the below trade pretty spot on.
“Buy R15.00 – R14.90 with a stop under R14.8650. Targets will be at R15.47 – R15.66, and this trade will have a 35 / 10 risk-reward! “– super chuffed for those who executed.
This week we are going to see if lightning can strike twice!
Buy R15.17 – R15.11 with a stop under R15.0800 and look to sell out at R15.45.
This trade will give us risk-reward of 5 / 1.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
All I know is that the USD is broken, and I have no idea what I am looking at regarding whether this is a correction or whether it’s the start of a new leg that could trade as low parity.
We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
Although we are over 95, we have not had a weekly close over 95 because I can’t stress just how important the 95 level is on a weekly close!
But with the chart being over 95 I am now compelled to get long and keep my stop as a weekly close under 95!
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
Even though I remain unhappy with what I am looking I feel the ST low is in and that the chart should look to trade up from current levels.
The current formation (even though I am slightly more bullish) has more than two potential outcomes, and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view while the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid, I hope!
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#I still favour the below view, but this chart is not very pretty at all.
I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80% that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.
Use an SL under 1.70%.
Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.
As for now the downtrend is still intact!