FX & FI Technicals
23 November 2021
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
Good Afternoon and apologies for not sending the reports out yesterday, but I have recently taken up Bog Snorkeling, and there was a new Bog I just had to Snorkel.
Back to business, the chart has traded up to and printed the much-vaunted R15.88 level and could quite possibly still print R16.08.
However, I still feel this is not the start of a ZAR blowout, and only a Weekly Close over R16.00 would have me negate this view.
On the fundamental side, Fed Chairman Jerome “printer” Powell has been renominated for another term.
One would think this will be good for the ZAR as the carry trade attractiveness should be looking a lot sexier in the medium term.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
For those trading the inverted H&S congratulations, now might be the time to take some cash off the table.
I am not keen to have a position up here as only a Weekly Close over R16.00 would get me long and until it does square feels so right.
Because R15.50 was such a significant upside level, it now serves as the “break lower level,” and until it is breached this chart remains bullish.
In closing, keep your stops tight!
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
We are now two for two, and this makes me both nervous and excited!
Buy R15.17 – R15.11 with a stop under R15.0800 and look to sell out at R15.45. – great trade!
Today we have another trade we are hunting.
Sell R16.08 with a stop over R16.20 with targets at R15.38.
This trade will have a RR of 58/10.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
The USD remains broken and all I know is that $1.1250 is massive on a Weekly Close and if she goes we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.
We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.
The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
The chart is trading nicely and as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 8 – 12 weeks.
Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance!
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#I still favour the below view, but this chart is not very pretty at all.
I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80% that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.
Use an SL under 1.70%.
Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.
As for now the downtrend is still intact!