CJS Securities

FX & FI Technicals

29 November 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Ok, firstly for all, those asking me what is my feeling regarding the “new variant” and its effect on the ZAR, my answer is simple, I do not know and hence why I prefer to look at the market technically.  

The chart blew through my levels and unfortunately it came over one of the most illiquid trading holidays, Thanksgiving!

But alas I have learnt long ago that markets will do whatever they want, whenever they want.    

The Weekly Close at R16.26 is very bullish this chart and congratulations to all who played and made money on the inverted H&S formation. 

For those that are long USD, I would advise taking some cash if not all the cash as there might well be a pullback toward the R15.70 level.

This chart will only turn lower on a Weekly Close under R15.35.

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

First and foremost, congratulations to all those that traded the inverted H&S formation, I did not have the conviction.

The charts are now strictly bullish, but that a move back over R16.20 should be an opportunity to take some of the cash off the table as the pullback zone is from R15.74 – R15.51.

Expect R15.97 to provide some very good support in the ST.

Should this chart trade under R15.50 would the bullish technical action be negated.

In closing, keep your stops tight! – goes to show why we do it, as anything can happen and mostly likely will happen, especially over US trading holidays!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

Firstly, the below trade did not work out, but we are in a good place as long as we follow our RR structures.

Sell R16.08 with a stop over R16.20 with targets at R15.38.

This trade will have a RR of 58/10.

As for the chart’s current formation, the only thing I can see from here is that R15.97 will provide excellent support and that there could easily be another leg higher before any significant pullback.

Due to the ferocity of this move and the “black swan” feeling associated with the activity, I am hesitant to put a trade on and would like the chart to play out for another week.   

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No Change in the below commentary

The USD remains broken and all I know is that $1.1250 is massive on a Weekly Close and if she goes we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

The only thing I can add to the below is that if the last candle plays out this chart might have had a false break.

 But it is early days and should take 3 weeks to playout.

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

Nice break of the trend, but now has double tops, but as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 4 – 8 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance! – this has aged pretty well. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

I still favour the below view and the chart is now highly oversold.  

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!