CJS Securities

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

This chart is a beautiful example of why weekly closes are so important!

 I remain very bullish on this chart, but R14.48 remains the level we need to get over before there can be any further talk of a Bull market, and this could still take a few weeks.

The chart is working very hard to break above the 233 week EMA, which is camped at R14.50.

Clearing this hurdle and closing over it will be explosive!  

 The R13.90 level needs to hold on to the downside while holding, and all the dips are Dollar buying opportunities.

 Remember that with these corrections/consolidations, the market is trying to tire you out into cutting your position, frustrate you into believing your view is wrong and sow enough doubt that you take the opposite position!

Don’t DO IT!

Stick to the levels always, and remember that inter-week traded levels are noise and the weekly close is KING!     

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart remains bullish and, in this case, could be making an irregular flat or a running correction. 

Both of these above formations are bullish, but if this is a running correction, this chart should rally hard before July 28th, 2021!

 I can’t find a reason to be short this chart at all, and if you are looking for an entry, I will look to start buying sub R14.35.


Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The 240 min is less sexy than the Weekly and Daily charts but has very decent support from R14.36 – R14.17.

 Gun to the head, I think we see R14.26, and this IMO would be a great buying opportunity.  


Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No change in commentary

 This chart is trading in a lovely zig-zag pattern, and I believe that this is a consolidation to trade higher.

 I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?

 As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.


US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No change in commentary

 The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.

 My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.


SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

I still love this chart.

I am just undecided if the move higher is from here or from another leg lower.

 My bigger view is that we will see the chart rally & rally hard.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!! 


US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

These are the buying levels IMO.

 I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

 Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!