FX & FI Technicals
14 March 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
The world feels surreal at this point, with WAR raging on and inflation going through the roof.
All I would like to say is that while this continues always remember, calm is contagious!
I still see the below taking place over time.
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity.
Until then, the range is likely to be R14.88 – R15.50 and I would seriously consider owning the bottom of the range! – hopefully some of you bought the sub R15’s, even as just a ST hedge against war.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
This chart could still trade lower by R0.20 – R0.35, but the chart’s formation is corrective, needs a leg higher, and this fits my weekly view.
I would like a last leg higher into the R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s.
I cannot stress enough how important patience is and keeping your mind clear as emotions are sure to get the better of many this year. – this was a pre WAR quote.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
I do not want to put in a trade here, but overall the current formation is a continuation that could trade as low as R14.70.
I am patiently waiting to see how low this chart can go, as the next trade I put on will be from the long side.
“So, I have decided to get long and stay long until either R15.70 or until I am stopped out through R15.00! – long at R15.22” will be taking my pain and exiting today.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
All bets remain off.
The Black Swan that is WAR has taken over, and I will need this chart to play out over the next few weeks before remotely thinking about taking a view.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
With the Black Swan of WAR taking over, I am very unsure of where to from here, and hence I would advise staying out.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.
The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
This chart is heading to 3.00% in my opinion.
I would buy any move back the MT trend line!