FX & FI Technicals
28 March 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
I remain very much a ZAR BULL!
However, this is a Weekly chart and before my ultimate downside target is reached, we should be in for a decent kick that will provide us with the last chance to sell the Dollar aka buy the ZAR.
Short term outlook = the chart is now super oversold on a weekly close and I would start building a long position sub R14.51 the kick should be worth at least R0.50 if not more.
I still see the below taking place over time.
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity.
Until then, the range is likely to be R14.33 – R15.50 and I would seriously consider owning the bottom of the range!
I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
This chart is still headed lower, with potentially a print at R14.52. – looking good so far, with R14.33 being my ST ultimate downside.
The chart is now grossly oversold but can easily go a little further until the weekly oscillator meets the daily. – this is pretty close to happening!
I would like a last leg higher into the high R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s. – we will watch as we go!
I cannot stress enough how important patience is and keeping your mind clear as emotions are sure to get the better of many this year. – this was a pre WAR quote.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
The chart trade down past R14.70, but as it stands I cannot find any formation I would like to buy.
I am patiently waiting to see how low this chart can go, as the next trade I put on will be from the long side.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
I am very confused and in the big picture this chart could be consolidating for a serious move lower, but right now I would like to stay out!
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
#No Change in Commentary
I remain unsure of where to from here, and hence I would advise staying out, although I would say that higher looks like the ST view.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
#No Change in Commentary.
The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.
The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
This chart is heading to 3.00% in my opinion.
I would buy any move back the MT trend line!