FX & FI Technicals
11 April 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
I repeat ad nauseam that I am very much a ZAR bull and have been for months now.
Before reaching my ultimate downside targets, the Weekly chart could quickly turn around within the next R0.40 and fly back to the high R15’s and shake all the comfy ZAR longs out.
I still see the below taking place over time.
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity.
Until then, the range is likely to be R14.33 – R15.50 and I would seriously consider owning the bottom of the range!
I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
This chart’s MT downside targets have been reached and congratulations to all those that were long ZAR.
The chart has failed to have a significant rally off the lows and I would now wait to either get short over R14.88 or long sub R14.20.
I would STILL like a leg higher into the high R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s. – we will watch as we go!
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
The cloud resistance could not have worked more perfectly!
I am patiently waiting to see how low this chart can go, as the next trade I put on will be from the long side, I am hoping for a sub R14.22 long.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
I remain uncertain regarding the big picture as this chart could be consolidating for a serious move lower, but right now I would advise staying out!
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
I currently have zero
conviction in the chart and hence am happy to stay right out.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
#No Change in Commentary.
The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.
The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
This chart is heading to 3.00% in my opinion.
I would buy any move back the MT trend line!