FX & FI Technicals
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
We have had the weekly close over R14.48 and now this is our new stop loss level based on a weekly close.
I would like the chart to consolidate over R14.48 for a week or two before looking to trade higher.
The 233 week EMA, will now provide good ST support.
Stick to the levels always, and remember that inter-week traded levels are noise and the weekly close is KING!
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
The Daily chart remains bullish, but I don’t like the current candle its making and I would take something off the table should we pop under R14.80.
For this chart to be a running correction, this chart needs to rally hard before end of day July 28th, 2021!
I can’t find a reason to be short this chart at all.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
The 240 min is less sexy than the Weekly and Daily charts but has very decent support from R14.36 – R14.17.
Gun to the head, I think we see R14.26, and this IMO would be a great buying opportunity.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
This chart needs a weekly close under $1.1753 for continued downside momentum.
I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?
As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
Another chart that is close to moving either up very quickly or coming back to earth with a thud and with Wednesday’s FOMC both are possible.
The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.
My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
What a one day move we have seen and if we close here today then there is every chance that this chart comes back down to test the 10.30% level in the coming weeks.
I am keen to buy the chart into weakness, but I am just undecided if the move higher is from here or from another leg lower.
My bigger view is that we will see the chart rally & rally hard.
The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!!
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#No Change in commentary.
These are the buying levels IMO.
I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80% that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.
Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.
As for now the downtrend is still intact!