FX & FI Technicals
25 April 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
Ladies and Gentlemen.
I repeat again I have not changed any of my views and that the below (please read) is playing out very nicely.
Before reaching my ultimate downside targets, the Weekly chart could quickly turn around within the next R0.40 and fly back to the high R15’s and shake all the comfy ZAR longs out. – this has happened and is happening!
I still see the below taking place over time.
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity. – we look well on our way to these levels!
I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s. – this view is playing out better than a Koos Kombuis concert!
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
What a break, and now we need to have patience to get long as a pullback to the R15.30’s will be a buying opportunity.
I would STILL like a leg higher into the high R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s. – as it stands the R16’s and more could well be on the cards.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
There was no chance to get long sub R14.40.
We are now waiting to buy sub R15.40 – R15.20, if we get that lucky
Euro/USD Weekly Close
As it stands this chart could end up going to parity, but in all honesty I remain uncertain regarding the big picture.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
I currently have zero conviction in the chart, but all I can say is that it is now grossly oversold.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
#No Change in Commentary.
The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.
The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
This chart has printed its targets!
I would not at all be surprised to see a pullback bought as there is zero reason that this chart has made its high.