FX & FI Technicals
03 May 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
This week there is very little to add to the Weekly Close chart, other than R15.98 will provide some very decent resistance!
I still see the below taking place over time, with these comments having been posted here for many weeks!
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity. – we look well on our way to these levels!
I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s. – this view is playing out better than a Koos Kombuis concert!
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
I cannot emphasize enough just what a massive break / rally this has been and continues to be as anything in excess of a 4.23 Fibo extension is very rare on a Daily time frame.
I expect R16.33 to provide some good ST resistance and now that the rally is extending, the pullback level has been raised to R15.56 from R15.30.
I would STILL like a leg higher into the high R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s. – as it stands the R16’s and more could well be on the cards.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
We have had to move the pullback level up to R15.71 – R15.56 due to the extended rally. We would most certainly look to buy a pullback!
Should this chart have topped out in the ST, I expect the correction to last between 6 – 12 days and be a very messy affair.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
This chart is on a tear but does have some really good support around $1.0452.
The chart is oversold on a Weekly basis and this combined with the support would rather have me square here.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
New highs last witnessed 16 years ago, wow!
All I can say is that this chart is now grossly overbought but that I would not pick tops!
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
#No Change in Commentary.
The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.
The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
After printing targets the chart has continued to rally.
However I would be reluctant to buy here due to the chart being grossly overbought.