FX & FI Technicals
23 May 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
After being under the pump last week again, the ZAR seems to have clawed back some of its losses and I now feel we are in a multi week correction.
This correction will have a range of R15.40 – R16.30, which is massive but I would want to own the bottom of the range.
Otherwise my general view has not changed.
I still see the below taking place over time, with these comments having been posted here for many weeks!
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity. – we look well on our way to these levels!
I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s. – this view is playing out brilliantly and we would only take profit at R16.44!
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
After massive volatility this chart is now very much in a corrective phase and could easily whiplash the USD longs in the next week.
I remain an advocate of buying the dips and a move back into R15.40’s would be a great buying opportunity.
The last leg higher that I have been waiting for and the one we are currently in could see the chart trade as high as R17.29.
I am sure should this transpire, the pundits will be screaming for R22.00 and above, do not get sucked in as we could turn around at anytime and this remains my LT view that once this leg higher is done we will strengthen significantly.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
#No Change in Commentary
We have had to move the pullback level up to R15.71 – R15.56 due to the extended rally. We would most certainly look to buy a pullback! – traded as low as R15.41 and we are now long and looking to sell at R16.44.
This chart is super bullish and should it have another pullback from R15.88 – R15.70, the chart will have formed a massive inverted H&S and this would be considered another massive buying opportunity!
Euro/USD Weekly Close
This chart’s support has held and although I feel there is a kick in it, I am not convinced the downside is over.
Hence I will be looking to sell a rally over $1.0750!
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
The chart is now coming off the highs and this will only be a consolidation until it rallies again.
This chart needs another leg higher once this correction is over.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
After a massive rally we have had a really good pullback, I still however fancy this chart to print over 11.40% in the coming months.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
This chart is in a corrective phase and will have another leg higher.
We would love to buy sub 2.8%!