FX & FI Technicals
06 June 2022
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
Firstly it appears that “Dollar Gate” has had zero effect on the ZAR and in fact seems to be positive, but as the saying goes “bad news does not matter, until its matters and then it really matters”!
I still believe we are busy with a correction and at current levels and down to R15.16 there is massive support.
However, volatility has been massive and just to put it into perspective, three Monday’s ago the price was R16.34 and today we are at R15.34.
This correction will have a range of R15.40 – R16.30, which is massive but I would want to own the bottom of the range. – and will buy all the way down to R15.12.
I still see the below taking place over time, with these comments having been posted here for many weeks!
What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.
I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!
This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity.
I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s. – this view is playing out brilliantly and we would only take profit at R16.44!
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
This chart is now very much in a corrective phase.
The chart has now completed more than a 50% retracement and has now printed the 144 Day EMA, this along with the 233 Day EMA at R15.24 will provide massive support in the coming days.
I remain an advocate of buying the dips and a move back into the R15.40’s would be a great buying opportunity. – we would need to buy down to R15.24 now.
The last leg higher that I have been waiting for, and the one we are currently in, could see the chart trade as high as R17.29.
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
We remain long at R15.41 and long against the carry that hurts as much as it is irritating.
But as the saying goes “in for a penny in for a pound” (let us hope it does not cost us pounds) we will need to buy more scale down as our overall view across time frames remains that the chart is correcting before looking to go higher.
We would still look at exiting longs over R16.44.
Euro/USD Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
This chart’s support has held and although I feel there is a kick in it, I am not convinced the downside is over.
Hence I will be looking to sell a rally over $1.0750!
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
#No Change in Commentary
The chart is now coming off the highs and this will only be a consolidation until it rallies again.
This chart needs another leg higher once this correction is over.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
#No Change in Commentary
After a massive rally we have had a really good pullback, I still however fancy this chart to print over 11.40% in the coming months.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
#No Change in Commentary
This chart is in a corrective phase and will have another leg higher.
We would love to buy sub 2.8%!