CJS Securities

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

I am back for my Covid19 enforced hiatus and I am sure you all missed me even though it was only 1 week.  

With all the intra week volatility we experienced not once has this chart had a weekly close under R14.48 and his is why weekly closes are so VERY important!

All I want to say is that the chart is headed north and that come 1 November 2021, we would have printed R17.00.

Let us see how well this views ages, as I have a track record of views aging finer than a 1960 Chateau Lafite Rothchild.     

The oscillator also has a very bullish formation IMO and I am happy to own the USD here.  

 

 “Stick to the levels always, and remember that intra-week traded levels are noise and the weekly close is KING!”- I have left this here for a month now and for good reason

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart is very bullish now that it’s done with its ST correction.

The greater formation is really bullish an although this is a candle chart please trust me that R14.84 is massive on a daily close and I mean MASSIVE! 

I can’t find a reason to be short this chart at all.

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

I have tried to draw in a simple formation and all I can say is that in a perfect world the chart makes ST double tops at R15.00,  consolidates between R14.80 and R15.00 before blowing higher.

 

“Gun to the head, I think we see R14.26, and this IMO would be a great buying opportunity. “ – Some fine wine aging going on here!

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The below commentary has not changed at all, but based on this chart’s current formation all I want to say is that if $1.16 goes its could all be over bar the shouting and the print of $1.08!

This chart needs a weekly close under $1.1753 for continued downside momentum. 

I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?

As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

This chart’s commentary has not changed much other than a print over 97.00 could see the lows in and a move so hard that we could see 120.00! 

The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher. 

My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

The 10.30% level was never tested on this chart and that now we can look to print 11.10% and thereafter 11.80%  with new ATH’s not being off the cards.  

My bigger view remains that we will see the chart rally & rally hard.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!! 

 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

Not much change in the below other than this chart is set to take many players to the cleaners! 

These are the buying levels IMO.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!