CJS Securities

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Another week of decent volatility and another weekly close over R14.48  that is now starting to give this chart a strong base!

In my perfect world I would like this chart to have a weekly close between R14.50 – R14.60 to complete the correction so that from next week we can start to attack the R15.00 level.  

If I am right the chart is headed north and that come 1 November 2021, we would have printed R17.00.

The oscillator has a very bullish formation IMO and I am happy to own the USD here.  

Looking at all the EMA’s you will see just how big a weekly close over R15.00 will be, and a move through there should be quite explosive.      


Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart remains bullish, but could still see a ST move down to R14.52 as to complete the correction / consolidation.

 R14.84 remains a massive level on a daily close, I cannot emphasise this enough.

I can’t find a reason to be short this chart at all.



Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

This time frame is playing out very nicely and in my perfect world , we have a little leg up to  R14.82, then down to R14.52 before blowing higher.

I would look to buy the USD sub R14.62.


Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary

Based on this chart’s current formation all I want to say is that if $1.16 goes its could all be over bar the shouting and the print of $1.08!

This chart needs a weekly close under $1.1753 for continued downside momentum. 

I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?

As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.


US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No Change in Commentary

This chart’s commentary has not changed much other than a print over 97.00 could see the lows in and a move so hard that we could see 120.00!

The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.

My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.



SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

All though the chart keeps coming lower it has rising bottoms and the 10.30% level was not tested over the last weeks.

Now we can look to print 11.10% and thereafter 11.80%  with new ATH’s not being off the cards.  

My bigger view remains that we will see the chart rally & rally hard.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!! 



US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

Not much change in the commentary below other than this chart is set to take many players to the cleaners but will need to close over 2.00% to confirm! 

These are the buying levels IMO.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!