FX & FI Technicals
Dollar/Rand Weekly Close
Firstly, on a technical level its appears that I will be correct and that we are starting a “super blow off” as our country burns and this gives me no pleasure.
R14.48 remains the Weekly close level we need to get over before there can be any further talk of a Bull market.
The above coincides with the 55 & 233 Week EMA’s that have converged.
Clearing this hurdle will be nothing short of mammoth.
I am still seeking consolidation between R13.90 – R14.50 for another week (the longer, the better) before making its push higher.
The status quo remains until further notice.
The chart is consolidating before looking to move north.
Dollar/Rand Daily Candle
The Daily chart remains bullish.
IMO the pullback is done.
This chart still has a few potential formations that can play out right now, but R14.55 is what we need to clear, then we will def test R15.66, while over that, this chart could make new ATH’s.
It remains early days!
Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle
The 240 min traded just shy of our target at R14.55 and, for now, seems to be making a classic Irregular Flat formation.
If the above plays out for another week between R14.00 – R14.55, the chart will have good impetus taking out the R14.55 level, and a daily close over this will see us shoot to R15.66!
Euro/USD Weekly Close
For now, the chart is trading in a lovely zig-zag pattern and I remain of the opinion that this is a consolidation to trade higher.
I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?
As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.
US Dollar Index Weekly Candle
#No change in commentary
The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.
My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.
SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close
#No change in commentary
This chart looks good, with 10.30% having held amazingly well on the Daily & Weekly close.
We should see a decent consolidation over the next few weeks.
My greater view is that we will see the chart rally from current levels.
The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!!
On the downside, this chart is well overbought.
US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close
I would love the 1.90% level to hold firm in the coming weeks, transitory inflation or not.
I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80% that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.
Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken!