Its WASDE week and oh my how we need the volatility back while all I can say is that this correction will either drag on for weeks, if not months or rally hard from here.
The correction will only break with a weekly close of over $6.42.
I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.
Until then, all the deep dips REMAIN buying opportunities.
The rallies remain selling opportunities (profit taking only) and the dips remain buying opportunities (getting long)!
People all I want you to know is that I am really bullish in the “big picture” but that we could easily see this market come off after trying print $6.00, so in short you may well have the chance to get long sub $5.00!
After seeing the price action over the last couple of weeks I am now even more convinced in my view that we should see a rally of $0.50 and a hard one at that, before coming off again.
The market feels very tired and has felt like this for a good few weeks.
In my experience, this typically occurs before a good move, as most have cut their positions.
I remain a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies!.
My view is the low is in and you should be well long.
With the ZAR not in great shape and Corn looking at a ST rally we could be in for a decent rally of R500 – R800, but that I would ship in some puts against my longs on the way up!
To understand why please see my Corn view.
As with WM my view is the low is in and you should be well long.
This chart is looking to break out to the upside by R500 or more, but as with WM I am not sure this is sustainable due to my Corn view.
Mange risk is all I can say, just manage the risk!
I love this chart, I have loved this chart and its working like a bomb!
Only thing we are now patiently waiting for is where to get longer!
I can’t add anything new to the below!
For those that bought down to $6.14, well done as you are in for the ride of 2021 (as far as wheat is concerned)!
We are now waiting to add, so I will ring the bell if we feel it’s time to BTD!
Wheat is set to rally in the coming months, and opportunity beckons! – “This view is aging better than a Chateau du Pape 1985.”
For those that bought the break out at -$0.19 congratulations, but please look at taking some if not all the cash on the table, as this overbought oscillator is bothering me no end.
For those that bought in the -$0.30’s you can likely mange this a little deeper as I feel $0.10 + is still coming.
I am not happy with this chart false breakout and current formation.
Basis the current formation we could easily see a R200 – R300 fall before looking to rally again.
I am not sold on this bullish breakout and would be square over the next week.
This chart could rally to the €235 level, but a failure there can see the chart come back as low as €176.
Discretion is the better part of valour right now.