CJS Securities

Quick Fire: Corn Update
23 August 2022

Daily Candle in USD

It’s been a long road to get back to $6.41 for the MT low at $5.62.

Based on the chart’s current formation, there is every possibility that we can experience a 61.8% retracement and print $6.80.

With the above in mind, I would like to go on the record as saying that I would fade a rally and that I am not super bullish overall.

My reasons are:

  •  We have struggled to get up here with all the bad news.
  • We have SAM yet to plant.
  • Has China already stockpiled with a war on the horizon?
  • Will China purchase more Brazilian corn?
  • How long can global prices stay high with inflation running rampant?
  • The US farmer has much to price even at 170 BPA.
  • Why would commercials go super long here and not continue hand to mouth?
  • How much upside is there for funds to build a new long position here, and who would they eventually sell to?

Good Luck to all. It’s rough out there!

Daily Candle in ZAR

This chart is Spot ZAR (in cents) over US Corn in USD.

The pricing is not exact as it does not account for the carry, but it is close enough.

The current formation looks similar to USD Corn and has another R200 potential upside.

Overall I would look at R4600 being the upside of the range and I would be selling into strength with my downside targets being R800 lower.

Remember the ZAR and US Corn hardly ever work in unison and I feel this time will be no different.

Happy Hunting.