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Month: September 2021

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

06 September 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

I wish I could change the below commentary from last week, but alas there is very little change ahead of this Friday’s WASDE. 

The chart remains in a corrective phase with very little movement over the last 2 weeks.   

The correction will only break with a weekly close over $6.42.

I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.

Until then, all the deep dips REMAIN buying opportunities. 

The rallies remain selling opportunities (profit taking only) and the dips remain buying opportunities (getting long)! 

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off after trying to print $6.00, so in short you may well have the chance to get long sub $5.00!

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

I am now not sure this chart can print $6.00 – $6.11 anymore before looking to pullback and printing a minimum downside for $5.16 – $4.99 and potentially as low as $4.70.

This chart might just trade straight down from here but I don’t expect this pullback to be sustained and at this stage I highly doubt we will see a daily close under $5.00.

Should we see the sub $5.00 level IMO it would only be intra day. 

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

All the dips are buying opportunities and after having a closer look I feel that R2800 (DEC21) will be on the very low side should we get there, however R2700 is the bottom of the range on the spot month.

 My ZAR flat price view is that R3000  – R2800 will be the ultimate low should we get there and that one cannot afford to be caught short as a change of trend can occur at any moment.  

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

The pullback seems to be on the cards but all pullbacks are buying opportunities although I would not fancy a daily close under R3135 as it could give way to another R150 lower.

However this fits into the WM view.

 Once the correction is over this chart will be looking to break out to the upside by R500 or more and make new MT highs.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

This chart has ST double tops and I now expect a decent pullback in the coming weeks.

 We are now patiently waiting to buy this pullback and will start to buy scale down from $7.00.

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

#No Change in commentary

 There are now very decent weekly double tops and we would take all the cash off the table as we will get another buying opportunity in the coming weeks.

The bull market is far from over but 2 – 5 weeks of consolidating / correcting will do this chart a world of good.  

 We would now look to buy scale down from $7.25!

 The bull market is far from over!

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary

 Over the last 2 weeks this chart has had a decent correction and seems to have started its new rally.

The chart looks well headed to $0.15 in the coming weeks.

 All I can say that I would take a sneaky punt on the chart, but definitely not basket balls and all.  

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 This chart has had a great rally.

 I would struggle to buy right, here right now as the oscillator is now highly overbought and if I were long I would be banking the cash.

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

After a monster rally this chart looks busy with a deep, deep pull back and although I might want to buy the dip, I would advise patience.

 This chart could end up taking players to the cleaners and hence I will let the formation play out until next week.

 Having said all the above I would be happy to buy sub €232.00.

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

06 September 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

With the double tops over R15.30 weighing heavy on this chart, we have now also had an extremely weak weekly close.   

The USD continues to rally and at this stage ZAR bears can only “hope” for a reprieve of R0.40 or R14.60 – R14.70, after what has been a straight line move lower of R1.14.

 This chart now has some serious structural issues and although a USD bear market has not yet confirmed, I am struggling to see the chart much higher as my Euro / Dollar view needs a leg up to minimum $1.24. 

I still maintain it is the time for “gorilla warfare” trading, and I would not hold onto a position for more than R0.30 as the ranges will be huge.

The major local banks say that liquidity has been rubbish for over 2 months and even the CEO of the JSE came out on record that what keeps her awake at night was the amount of foreigners pull their capital out of SAF.  

This recipe leads me to believe that the trend is not your mate until further notice.   

As three friends of mine so eloquently pointed out last week, that they we were waiting for my big picture call over R20.00 to play out.

One said I need to rename the report to tech madness while the other said “sorry mate, just sleep with one goat”, but alas as a very learned gent once told me “always know where you are wrong” and based on the techs before me I have no trust in the market until we see some structural changes and in the weeks ahead, we may even consider owning the ZAR.

Right now the exporters seem to have all the major flow.   

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The below scenarios seem to have both failed although scenario #2 can still play out but is becoming highly unlikely. 

In the ST the R14.20 really needs to hold, but there is significant support down to R14.10, however the chart is not yet oversold and anything can happen.

The path of least resistance is clearly lower as the market struggles to move higher by R0.10 but can fall R0.15 in the blink of an eye.

 Once the pullbacks start to take place look for it to reach R14.60 – R14.70. 

Scenario #1. 

The original “this chart will blowout” view is still on the cards as long as R14.50 holds.

Targets will be well over R17.00. 

Scenario #2. 

The current formation is an irregular flat bear correction that trades back to the R14.20’s, then trades up hard and fast to print between R15.70 – R15.86 to complete the correction while getting everyone and their dog long USD, only to collapse and come down to test the yearly lows and possibly print as low as R11.50.  

Both scenarios will have one wondering because after the ferocity of last week’s fall, there is very little confidence in this chart. 

Only a daily close over R15.62 would negate scenario #2. 

As with the weekly chart, I would not hold any position now for more than R0.30.

Please don’t wipe yourself out as there will still be plenty of opportunities to come before year-end.     

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

There is very little to say about this chart, other than it could potentially be making an ending diagonal, which could well precipitate the pullback to R14.60.

 There is decent support from R14.20 & R14.10 but as with other time frames the chart is not yet oversold.  

 I can see no trade here worth taking and would strongly advise staying out until further notice.   

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The below commentary from last week seems to holding up nicely.   

Not only has the $1.16 level held like the Rock of Gibraltar, it now seems almost a “fait accompli” that the correction will see its last leg up north of $1.24 in the coming months.

 Once the above move is over, the USD will strengthen significantly, but first, there is much cash to be made playing the Euro from the long side.  

 The general view is now long the EURO until we have a daily close under $1.16!

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No Change in commentary

 The DXY now appears to be headed lower before it goes higher in line with the white line road map and off the back of the Euro.

 However a print over 97.00 would still see the lows in place and a move well over 107.00!

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

This 10.30% level is sticky as hell, but if it does not hold, then there will still be a decent amount of downside in this chart over the next 12 months.

The ending diagonal formation will be off the table under 10.20%, and right now, I must confess that 9.22% looks very much on the charts.  

 Having said all of the above, don’t panic!

The chart is now oversold but can continue lower before kicking, but overall, I would expect a kickback to 10.90% before printing the 9.22%, so you should have time, at least I hope so! – ‘I truly hope this ages well.’ 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in commentary.

 I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

 Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!