CJS Securities

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

18 October 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

Although I think this chart should come lower, we have now printed sub $12.00 and IMO the MT low is in, along with the 89 week EMA holding solidly.

In short the correction could well be over but we would need a $1.00 rally and Weekly Close over $13.02 to get me really excited.  

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00.

My new downside target is sub $12.00 and potentially $11.70, this would be a massive MT buying opportunity to say the least. – we printed $11.84.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

Now that the downside has played out, I trust you are long and only look to cut should we make a new low, but based on the charts current formation we are going north!

I would look to take some cash off the table over $12.40 and keep BTFD’s until a new low is made, because until we have a move and close over $13.08 the bull market is not yet confirmed.

On a technical basis these are the set ups we crave and if we are correct we should be able to extract some serious value out of this chart. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

#NO Change in Commentary

This chart can take you to the cleaners and return your dirty!

I would stay out until further notice.

The price action now feels binary!  

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

For all of those that cashed out last week, congratulations.

For those looking to be piggish, I feel the chart can make a new high, but PLEASE remember the following when it comes to the market and that is “most pigs get slaughtered.” 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (although nothing new to report, we know that no news or “steady as she goes”)

The chart is coming off beautifully and, with a bit of luck, could still trade as low as R6700.00.

Irrespective of the market moving, one should use weakness to price, daily!

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

If anyone is still short Dec 21 SFS, I have no sympathy for you.

This market is now binary and could trade as high as R11 000 – R12 000.  

If you are long, enjoy it but you should be taking profits daily. 

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

I have snapped out of my Stockholm syndrome.

This chart will kick sooner or later, but its Fugly and could still print as low as $288, but we are long and burning worse than a California wild fire, but feel a move sub $290 will be an opportunity to buy more!

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

18 October 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Although there was some intra week price action, the week’ on week’ movement remained low, and it is with this in mind that I cannot change any of the below.  

The upside targets are between $5.70 – $5.80 on the Z21 contract.

Please note that I do not feel the correction is over until we have a weekly close over $6.42,  while I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.

Until then trade the ranges, use the market volatility to build your confidence and don’t get married to a view.

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off after trying to print $5.70, so in short you may well have the chance to get long sub $5.00!

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

I STILL like this chart to still trade higher and print $5.60 – $5.80, but based on the current formation I would be highly surprised to see it hold those levels, in fact should we push up toward these levels I would consider selling with a stop over $5.95 as the downside target would be sub $5.00.  

In the BIGGER picture the dips remain buying opportunities potentially as low as $4.70.

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies until we confirm a bull market over $6.00!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

The chart looks great and the dips are still buying opportunities.

I would however take some risk off the table, as the higher we go, the pullback will be hard and fast and we do not want to be caught flat footed.

Even after the current rally off the low, the upside move has not confirmed yet but currently I feel like MT low is in!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary.  (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

The chart looks great and the dips remain buying opportunities.

Congratulations to all who BTD, even though the chart went a little lower  than my technical comfort level.

All the pullbacks remains buying opportunities.

Once the correction is over, the correction is not over yet but its close, the chart will be looking to break out to the upside by R500 or more and make new MT highs.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

There is ZERO reason to sell this chart or take profit, as the digital asset boys say, “HOLD”!

The chart looks great and it’s a buy!

The pullback is over and we are long and waiting to make some green (hope we don’t go home broke).

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

#No Change in Commentary.  (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

There is ZERO reason to sell this chart or take profit, as the digital asset boys say, “HOLD”!

The pullback is over, the chart looks great!

We are long and waiting to make some green (hope we don’t go home broke). 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

I truly hope some of you went long last week as the “consolidation” looked a sitter and we are still headed north!

Targets could be as high as $0.28!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary.  (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

Although this chart is distorted post the Sep 21 futures close out, I can still easily see the price rally R400 off its currently level, with targets at R6000.

I would look to buy the chart into weakness, down to R5350.

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary.  (although nothing new to report, we know that no news is really good news for the BULLS or “steady as she goes”)

The below view is playing out wonderfully and we would raise our stop profit to €260.00

This chart looks decent and we are looking to buy scale down to €235.00 as I feel the correction is over with targets over €295.00.

If this chart has a daily close at or just under €257.00 we will most certainly go square as a failure at those level could see a €50.00 drop in prices.

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

18 October 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

I am very happy with the chart’s current structure and how it is playing out for now.

The chart made a 50% re-tracement down to R14.57 and found great support  at the 233 week EMA.

The trading ranges remain very big and if there is one thing the last few months have shown it is that the patient trader comes out on top with regards to Dollar / Rand.

The inverted H&S formation is still in play with targets at R15.78, this is within a much bigger H&S formation which has targets at R11.77.

IMO the MT low is in and that we will see the chart start to rally before the election, however I will only be proven correct on a Weekly Close over R14.94.

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

As previously mentioned I felt the chart would pullback to R14.55 and that this would be a great buying opportunity.

The chart traded as low as R14.57 and has subsequently turned around, but you will recall the “Quick Fire” update posted Thursday stating that I would be a buyer from R14.78 scale down and so far this seems to be paying dividends.  

Furthermore I can’t add anything to the below other than to change the greater formation, but the outcome remains the same.

Scenario #2 from now 6 weeks ago is still on the cards, although I have changed the irregular flat formation into a classic correction but the upside targets remain intact.  

Scenario #2

The current formation is a “classic correction” that trades back to the R14.50’s, then trades up hard and fast to print between R15.70 – R15.86 to complete the correction while getting everyone and their dog long USD, only to collapse and come down to test the yearly lows and possibly print as low as R11.50.  

Only a daily close over R16.00 would negate scenario #2.

As with the weekly chart I am now keen to own the USD on a decent pullback that hopefully prints as low as the R14.50’s.

Opportunity is here, seize it with both hands.  

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

#No Change in Commentary  

I would now be buying scale down from  R14.73 – R14.49 with a stop over R14.4650.

Targets on this view would be in excess of R15.50 and hence have a minimum RR of 32/10.

Fingers crossed we can execute. 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

I remain disappointed with this chart as I would have thought that the breach of $1.16 would induce a violent move lower.

And its with this in mind that I am starting to think that the chart is creating a triangle or a classical correction, but TBH I am pretty confused.

With the breach, and the market now consistently trading below $1.16, we will take a week or two before looking to enter the market again. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No Change in Commentary  

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No Change in Commentary  

With  10.30% hold beautifully, the chart has a nice rounding bottom and we could potentially look at targeting the 11.40% level.  

The current formation has more than two potential outcomes and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view.   

As predicted, the chart printing 10.90% has played out nicely and with this chart trading higher than expected, the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid.   

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary  

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

Categories
Uncategorized

Quick Fire Dollar / Rand Update

Quick Fire Dollar / Rand Update
14 October 2021

240 Min Candle

Ladies & Gents

I want to follow up on the weekly report where I wanted to start buying the USD scale down from R14.73 and raise that level to R14.78.

The chart still has the potential to trade lower, but I feel that we are within the last 1.5% of the move lower.

The upside target remains over R15.50.

Good luck out there and may the force be with you!

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

11 October 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

This chart needs some more downside IMO, before we can buy with confidence as the correction remains far from over and could last for another few weeks.  

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00!

My new downside target is sub $12.00 and potentially $11.70, this would be a massive MT buying opportunity to say the least.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

The overall formation is bearish, as we now have a lovely consolidation waiting to burst lower.  

I would sell any hard rally as we could see a sub $12.00 move in the coming weeks, but note that sub $12.00 I would want to own it all week long and twice on a Sunday. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

#NO Change in Commentary

This chart can take you to the cleaners and return your dirty!

I would stay out until further notice.

The price action now feels binary!  

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

We have been long and loving it!

Now that we are supremely in the money all I want to say is, CASH IN and stay out!

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

The chart is coming off beautifully and with a little luck could still trade as low as R6700.00.

Irrespective of the market moving one should be using weakness daily to price!

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

This market is now binary and could trade as high as R11 000 – R12 000.  

No matter how high it goes now is the time to be grateful for our wonderful long position and call it a day!

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

I am convinced I have Stockholm syndrome.

In all seriousness the $325 level did not hold and as the saying goes “in for a penny and now in for many pounds” so we are now waiting to see where we will add to our long (and wrong) position.  

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

11 October 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

#NO Change in Commentary

The great formation remains a correction but we are now headed higher.

The upside targets are between $5.70 – $5.80 on the Z21 contract.

Please note that I do not feel the correction is over until we have a weekly close over $6.42,  while I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.

Until then trade the ranges, use the market volatility to build your confidence and don’t get married to a view as regret is a rough sheet to sleep on!

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off after trying to print $5.70, so in short you may well have the chance to get long sub $5.00!

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

#NO Change in Commentary

I like this chart to still trade higher and print $5.70 – $5.80, but based on the current formation I would be highly surprised to see it hold those levels, in fact should we push up toward these levels I would consider selling with a stop over $5.95 as the downside target would be sub $5.00.  

In the BIGGER picture the dips remain buying opportunities potentially as low as $4.70.

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies until we confirm a bull market over $6.00!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

#Again. I cannot change any of the below commentary.

The chart looks great and the dips are still buying opportunities.

I would however take some risk off the table, as the higher we go, the pullback will be hard and fast and we do not want to be caught flat footed.

Even after the current rally off the low, the upside move has not confirmed yet but currently I feel like MT low is in!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary.

The chart looks great and the dips remain buying opportunities.

Congratulations to all who BTD, even though the chart went a little lower  than my technical comfort level.

All the pullbacks remains buying opportunities.

Once the correction is over, the correction is not over yet but its close, the chart will be looking to break out to the upside by R500 or more and make new MT highs.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary.

There is ZERO reason to sell this chart or take profit, as the digital asset boys say, “HOLD”!

The chart looks great and it’s a buy!

The pullback is over and we are long and waiting to make some green (hope we don’t go home broke). 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

#No Change in Commentary.

There is ZERO reason to sell this chart or take profit, as the digital asset boys say, “HOLD”!

The pullback is over, the chart looks great!

We are long and waiting to make some green (hope we don’t go home broke). 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

After hanging back, this chart is now a buy as the consolidation is ready to explode.

Targets could be as high as $0.28!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary.

 Although this chart is distorted post the Sep 21 futures close out, I can still easily see the price rally R400 off its currently level.

I would look to buy the chart into weakness, down to R5350.

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

The below view is playing out wonderfully and we would raise our stop profit to €260.00

This chart looks decent and we are looking to buy scale down to €235.00 as I feel the correction is over with targets over €295.00.

If this chart has a daily close at or just under €257.00 we will most certainly go square as a failure at those level could see a €50.00 drop in prices.

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

11 October 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

After a range bound week the chart again struggled to settle over R15.00.

The strong resistance around the EMA’s remain very solid and even Friday’s Non – Farm Payrolls (NFP) could not give this chart any real new direction.   

The trading ranges remain HUGE!

The inverted H&S formation is still in play with targets at R15.78, this is within a much bigger H&S formation which has targets at R11.77.

I have a terrible feeling that this chart will rally and suck everyone in thinking it’s the end of the world again, only to come back down to earth.

All eyes will be on US & Chinese CPI this week. 

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

I wish there was more to add to the commentary but based on the chart’s current formation I feel there is room for a downward correction toward the R14.55 level.

A move down to the R14.55 level would constitute a serious ST / MT buying opportunity IMO.  

With the big inverted H&S formation playing out, Scenario #2 from now 5 weeks ago is still on the cards 

Scenario #2.

The current formation is an irregular flat bear correction that trades back to the R14.20’s, then trades up hard and fast to print between R15.70 – R15.86 to complete the correction while getting everyone and their dog long USD, only to collapse and come down to test the yearly lows and possibly print as low as R11.50.  

Both scenarios will have one wondering because after the ferocity of last week’s fall, there is very little confidence in this chart.

Only a daily close over R15.62 would negate scenario #2.

As with the weekly chart I am now keen to own the USD on a decent pullback that hopefully prints as low as the R14.50’s.

Opportunity beckons in Q4, I can feel it in my bones!

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

This chart looks like an ugly clown and with skew eyes.

Skew eyes or not the chart is consolidating / correcting and I am very keen to buy the USD scale down from R14.73.

I would now be buying scale down from  R14.73 – R14.49 with a stop over R14.4650.

Targets on this view would be in excess of R15.50 and hence have a minimum RR of 32/10.

Fingers crossed we can execute. 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The $1.16 level was easily breached last week, but I am disappointed as I would have thought that the chart would strengthen significantly.

And its with this in mind that I am starting to think that the chart is creating a triangle with its next support at $1.12952.

NFP did not seem to be a market mover even though the numbers pointed to a weaker USD.  

With the breach, and the market now consistently trading below $1.16, we will take a week or two before looking to enter the market again.

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

Whiplash, while NFP did nothing to move this market.  

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

With  10.30% hold beautifully, the chart has a nice rounding bottom and we could potentially look at targeting the 11.40% level.  

The current formation has more than two potential outcomes and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view.  

As predicted, the chart printing 10.90% has played out nicely and with this chart trading higher than expected, the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid.   

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

NFP had zero effect on this chart and the below view is playing out wonderfully!

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

04 October 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

This week we have at least seen some volatility come back to the market and this chart still has some downside before we can buy it with confidence.

This correction remains far from over and could take a good few weeks, if not months, to complete.

I am now of the opinion that one should use the volatility to play the ranges and gain confidence as holding a net long after last weeks Q4 stocks report might just weigh heavy on the mind and the pocket!

My new downside target is sub $12.00 and potentially $11.70, this would be a massive MT buying opportunity to say the least.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

This chart looks shocking and thinking it can rally hard off currently levels is like hoping the Cape will get independence.

I would sell any hard rally as a move sub $12.00 in the coming weeks, but note that sub $12.00 I would want to own it all week long and twice on a Sunday. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

This chart can take you to the cleaners and return your dirty!

I would stay out until further notice.

The price action now feels binary!  

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

The below view is playing out for now!

We are bullish and long but will put in a stop loss under 44%.

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary.

We are looking to buy this chart further into weakness and are “hoping” (which has no place in trading) that this chart still prints R7000 in the coming weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

The weekly double tops have been negated, all pullbacks are buying opportunities, as the bull market is far from over and over the next 8 weeks R11 000 – R12 000 could print just based on shorts that might be a little too clever!

“I would buy scale down from R9550. – this is aging pretty well for now.” – this month old view is aging like Riaan Cruywagen!

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

I am now starting to feel like I have Stockholm syndrome.

After this week I am packing my bags and leaving, In hope.

In all seriousness though this chart is currently very unfriendly and the $325 level will need to hold if this chart has any chance of rallying. 

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

04 October 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Wonderful news, we have movement!

The great formation remains a correction but we are now headed higher.

The upside targets are between $5.70 – $5.80 on the Z21 contract.

Please note that I do not feel the correction is over until we have a weekly close over $6.42,  while I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.

Until then trade the ranges, use the market volatility to build your confidence and don’t get married to a view as regret is a rough sheet to sleep on!

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off after trying to print $5.70, so in short you may well have the chance to get long sub $5.00!

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

I like this chart to still trade higher and print $5.70 – $5.80, but based on the current formation I would be highly surprised to see it hold those levels, in fact should we push up toward these levels I would consider selling with a stop over $5.95 as the downside target would be sub $5.00.  

In the BIGGER picture the dips remain buying opportunities potentially as low as $4.70.

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies until we confirm a bull market over $6.00!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

I cannot change any of the below commentary.

The chart looks great and the dips are still buying opportunities.

I would however take some risk off the table the higher we go as a pullback will be hard and fast and we do not want to be caught flat footed.

Even after the current rally off the low, the upside move has not confirmed but currently I feel like MT low is in!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

The chart looks great and the dips remain buying opportunities.

Congratulations to all who BTD, even though the chart went a little lower  than my technical comfort level.

All the pullbacks remains buying opportunities.

Once the correction is over, the correction is not over yet but its close, the chart will be looking to break out to the upside by R500 or more and make new MT highs.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

There is ZERO reason to sell this chart or take profit, as the digital asset boys say, “HOLD”!

The chart looks great and it’s a buy!

The pullback is over and we are long and waiting to make some green (hope we don’t go home broke). 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

There is ZERO reason to sell this chart or take profit, as the digital asset boys say, “HOLD”!

The pullback is over, the chart looks great!

We are long and waiting to make some green (hope we don’t go home broke). 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

I am now keen to hang back for a week or two as this chart could be looking at consolidating before going higher.

I will happily ring the bell should we look to get in again. 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 Although this chart is distorted post the Sep 21 futures close out, I can still easily see the price rally R400 off its currently level.

I would look to buy the chart into weakness, down to R5350.

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

The below view is playing out better than a Fast and Furious sequel and I could not be happier!

This chart looks decent and we are looking to buy scale down to €235.00 as I feel the correction is over with targets over €295.00.

If this chart has a daily close at or just under €257.00 we will most certainly go square as a failure at those level could see a €50.00 drop in prices.

Categories
Uncategorized

CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

04 October 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

After what feels like a more subdued week the market struggled to settle over R15.00.

The chart has run into some very strong resistance around the EMA’s and as it stands I am now looking for a pullback in the next week or two.  

The trading ranges remain HUGE!

The inverted H&S formation is still in play with targets at R15.78, this is within a much bigger H&S formation which has targets at R11.77.

Good luck and DO NOT get sucked into market volatility right now and remember you do not have to have a position.

All eyes will be on Friday’s Non- Farm Payrolls!

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

Based on the charts current formation I feel there is room for a downward correction toward the R14.55 level.

With the big inverted H&S formation playing out Scenario #2 from now 4 weeks ago is still on the cards.

Scenario #2.

The current formation is an irregular flat bear correction that trades back to the R14.20’s, then trades up hard and fast to print between R15.70 – R15.86 to complete the correction while getting everyone and their dog long USD, only to collapse and come down to test the yearly lows and possibly print as low as R11.50.  

Both scenarios will have one wondering because after the ferocity of last week’s fall, there is very little confidence in this chart.

Only a daily close over R15.62 would negate scenario #2.

As with the weekly chart, I would not hold any position now for more than R0.30.

Please don’t wipe yourself out as there will still be plenty of opportunities to come before year-end.     

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The chart has struggled to maintain momentum above R15.00 over the last week, and although I am not very bearish with the current formation I could easily see the chart trade back to the R14.50’s.

This view from last week fell short with R0.01, a tragedy if there ever was one. –“Right now the only trade I would put on is selling up scale from  R15.14 – R15.20 with a stop over R15.2350.

Although I am itching to put on a trade, I don’t see any decent levels which will provide a sufficient RR.

For those that must trade I would be short close to R15.00 and long sub R14.55.

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The $1.16 level is holding on by a thread and with Non-Farm Payrolls out this week.

I would suggest keeping a tight stop sub $1.16 until we have clarity.

I still like a move higher but knowing where I am wrong is far more important than being right!

The general view remains long the EURO until we have a daily close under $1.16!

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

Whiplash, and plenty of it as false breaks abound.

With Non -Farm Payrolls due out o Friday I would leave this chart well alone until then unless we see a move sub 90.

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long also and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

 #No Change in Commentary

This 10.30% level is sticky as hell, but if it does not hold, then there will still be a decent amount of downside in this chart over the next 12 months.

The ending diagonal formation will be off the table under 10.20%, and right now, I must confess that 9.22% looks very much on the charts.  

Having said all of the above, don’t panic!

The chart is now oversold but can continue lower before kicking, but overall, I would expect a kickback to 10.90% before printing the 9.22%, so you should have time, at least I hope so! – ‘I truly hope this ages well.’ 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

With Non – Farm Payrolls out on Friday who knows where we head in the ST, but the below view is playing out nicely, albeit for now.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!