How the market can change in a few weeks and just how the winds of change have blown through this chart are truly incredible.
I have drawn so many lines on this chart some of you may be more confused than Handre Pollard with kicking tee, but these lines all have significance as I am trying and hopefully not failing in finding the road map to El Dorado.
The chart has failed to the upside, but the ranges are MASSIVE and there is a possibility that we have another leg higher to the R15.86 level, but this has a low probability, while the much bigger H&S formation seems more likely at present and would have a target at R11.77.
I know most of you are saying that can never happen etc and all I can say to that is we have seen negative crude oil, Apple trading over $2T market cap, a 2 week lock down turned into 500 days and the most powerful western nation in history voting in a senile old hack that can’t remember what day of the week it is, so anything is possible and mainly because we think it cant be.
As it stands I still recommend “guerrilla warfare” trading, and I would not hold onto a position for more than R0.30 as the ranges are huge.
The counter intuitiveness of the strong ZAR view is based on a weak economy devoid of imports to offset export and hence we find ourselves here.
In closing not much has changed from last week although I feel this week will see the start of a relief rally and should we see the unlikely move to R15.80 + I would sell the Dollar there or at least but puts as all the USD liquidity does not seem to be leaving us soon.
Keep you eye on US CPI out tomorrow, don’t ask me what it means as the market feels like it has been 12 rounds with a 22 year old Mike Tyson, nothing makes sense anymore.
I will leave you with this thought, maybe none of us are trading FX, commodities or financials etc, maybe we are all just trading a digital asset with a different name!