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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

06 December 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

I am happy with the general long position but I would look to take some cash off the table over $13.15!

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

Nothing has changed on the below view and for those that are long I would look to fade into a rally over $13.10!

I really like what I see currently and close over $12.95 will give us targets at $13.48 & $14.14!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

With the below view playing out very nicely, I am keen to get long on a pullback but will give the chart another week to play out.

This chart has had a great pullback to it’s support and with the oscillator coming off oversold levels, I expect a re-testing of the highs. 

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

After kicking off extremely oversold levels and making a new MT low, the chart is back at oversold level and another leg lower to 42% will get me long. 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

We are patiently awaiting the rally after the chart bottomed sub R7000.

This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last seven weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

I am so over spot market suns and cant wait for it to go off the board.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

I remain bullish and all I can say from here is that patience will be the key to unlocking profit.

The chart is approaching oversold levels with nothing having changed on the below view.  

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

06 December 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

There is very little to add to the below view other than I would fade into a rally from $6.10 – $6.25 for profit taking and further fade into a move to $6.50 getting short.  

$5.95 remains a massive level to close above, but I feel we could be going into a complex correction that has upside targets from $6.30 – $7.35.

So I remain bullish, but I am not sure that this will be the start of the next “bull” phase, however I do see $20 + move higher within the next couple of weeks, so BTD’s down to $5.65!

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

I am very uncertain of the ST view on this chart.

I would buy at best and all the way down to Friday’s low with upside targets set at $6.18 -$6.31 which would give one around a $20.00 profit! – You should all be long now!

The above view will only be negated under $5.55.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

Firstly, we have not had a daily close under R3400 on the Mar 2022 contract since last Monday.

A rally over R3650 would trigger me to take profits!

“We would look to start buying back sub R3250.’ – we hope you picked up some stock as this is from 3 weeks ago.  

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities.” – I cannot stress this enough!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

PLEASE take profit once we near the target area and DO NOT get married to the long position.

The below view is still in place but I would advise putting in a stop profit should we have a daily close under R3610 on the Mar 2022 contract.

This chart is headed to its targets, and well done to those who believed in BTD’s.

There are zero reasons to pick a top on this chart and do not get caught short over the next week, but instead wait to buy.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

The run was beyond amazing and well done to all as there was great cash on the table.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

The run was beyond amazing and well done to all as there was great cash on the table.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

The targets have been reached and we are happy to sit out for a week or two.

My current bias is to look for a selling opportunity as I feel the next big move will be lower. 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 After a major drop the chart has recovered nicely, however this does not mean we are keen buyers and in fact should we see a rally toward the previous highs I would be looking to get short.  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

Hand on heart and my tripod on the chopping block, I would sell this chart at €293 – €312 in size as this correction is far from over!

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

06 December 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

 After a week of serious volatility, the price has not actually done much on a weekly basis.

The chart appears very much in a corrective phase and could still pullback to the R15.60’s.

The Weekly Close remains bullish until we have a close under R15.35 and its with this in mind that I would look to get long from R15.70 – R15.35.   

The only thing that I do not like about this chart is that currently we are sitting at overbought levels.

This however can last longer than your patience and squeeze you out of your positions as we are working on a weekly close.   

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The chart remains strictly bullish although the pullback does not appear to be complete as I would like a move into the “pullback zone”.

Should this chart trade under R15.47 the bullish technical action would be negated.

This chart is super volatile and R0.25 intra day moves are the norm, so again please keep your stops tight and only ever trade when you are comfortable and not because you have FOMO!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

WOW, the volatility is crazy and one could have lost a fortune between R15.80 & R16.20.

I see an opportunity this week to make some cash with a decent RR, so here keeping our fingers crossed it plays out!

Sell R16.20 with a stop over R16.2650 with targets at R15.68.

This trade will have a RR of 8/1.

As always keep your stops tight, with zero emotion!

If this plays out the bottom of the cloud should provide some serious support

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The $1.1250 is proving just how massive a support level it is and if she goes we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

As things stand though, it is very unclear whether or not this chart is completing a correction that will turn up from current levels or if it is taking a breather, but what I do know that a pullback from here is on the cards no matter the greater outcome.  

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

  We are waiting patiently to see is the below plays out.

The only thing I can add to the below is that if the last candle plays out this chart might have had a false break.

But it is early days and should take 3 weeks to playout.

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

HUGE double tops!!!!

However, as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 4 – 8 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance! – this has aged pretty well. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

We have been stopped out and all I can say is that this chart is now HIGHLY oversold.

I have no strong view and will need the chart to play out over the next few weeks. 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

29 November 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary

I am now calling the low of the market for the MT but will only get excited once we have a  Weekly Close over $13.02.  

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

 

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

New chart time frame, same bullish view, the current levels and lower are a buy.

I really like what I see currently and a close over $12.95 will give us targets at $13.48 & $14.14!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

This chart has had a great pullback to it’s support and with the oscillator coming off oversold levels, I expect a re-testing of the highs.

Although we are bullish we will need support to hold and confirm before getting long. 

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

After kicking off extremely oversold levels, this chart is now in limbo.  

We are keen to sell a rally but will need to see how high it wants to kick.

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No change in commentary

After bottoming sub R7000, This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last six weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

#No change in commentary

New ATH’s and based on its formation, the chart wants to go higher.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary, three weeks in a row now!

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

29 November 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Ok, I am about to change my whole view, although it remains bullish!

$5.95 remains a massive level to close above, but as of now, I feel we could be going into a complex correction that has upside targets from $6.30 – $7.35.

So I remain bullish, but I am not sure that this will be the start of the next “bull” phase, however I do see $20 + move higher within the next couple of weeks, so BTD’s down to $5.65!

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

Ok, so here we have a new chart (Mar 2022) and a new MT view.

Firstly, we are happy we took a small profit on the Dec short, but now the time has come to go long!

I would buy at best and all the way down to Friday’s low with upside targets set at $6.18 -$6.31 which would give one around a $20.00 profit!

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

The below view is still in place but I would advise putting in a stop profit should we have a daily close under R3400 on the Mar 2022 contract.

“We would look to start buying back sub R3250.’ – we hope you picked up some stock as this is from 2 weeks ago.  

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities.” – I cannot stress this enough!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

The below view is still in place but I would advise putting in a stop profit should we have a daily close under R3610 on the Mar 2022 contract.

This chart is headed to its targets, and well done to those who believed in BTD’s.

There are zero reasons to pick a top on this chart and do not get caught short over the next week, but instead wait to buy.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary

Congratulations to the Pigs who stayed long!!!!!

At this point, we could easily see this chart rally another $0.80 before coming off, and although we have missed the last part of this rally, we are now pleased to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

#No Change in commentary

Congratulations to the Pigs who stayed long!!!!!

At this point, we could easily see this chart rally another $0.80 before coming off, and although we have missed the last part of this rally, we are now pleased to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

The below view has played out even better than imagined, but we are still keen to stay out.

This chart now appears to want to target the  $0.30 level.

We are happy to sit back for a few weeks longer before getting involved. 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 This chart could go even higher, but even so, we are now very happy to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

We are happy to sit back and allow this chart to develop over the coming weeks  as this is not the place to get involved.

The MT top is in!

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

29 November 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Ok, firstly for all, those asking me what is my feeling regarding the “new variant” and its effect on the ZAR, my answer is simple, I do not know and hence why I prefer to look at the market technically.  

The chart blew through my levels and unfortunately it came over one of the most illiquid trading holidays, Thanksgiving!

But alas I have learnt long ago that markets will do whatever they want, whenever they want.    

The Weekly Close at R16.26 is very bullish this chart and congratulations to all who played and made money on the inverted H&S formation. 

For those that are long USD, I would advise taking some cash if not all the cash as there might well be a pullback toward the R15.70 level.

This chart will only turn lower on a Weekly Close under R15.35.

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

First and foremost, congratulations to all those that traded the inverted H&S formation, I did not have the conviction.

The charts are now strictly bullish, but that a move back over R16.20 should be an opportunity to take some of the cash off the table as the pullback zone is from R15.74 – R15.51.

Expect R15.97 to provide some very good support in the ST.

Should this chart trade under R15.50 would the bullish technical action be negated.

In closing, keep your stops tight! – goes to show why we do it, as anything can happen and mostly likely will happen, especially over US trading holidays!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

Firstly, the below trade did not work out, but we are in a good place as long as we follow our RR structures.

Sell R16.08 with a stop over R16.20 with targets at R15.38.

This trade will have a RR of 58/10.

As for the chart’s current formation, the only thing I can see from here is that R15.97 will provide excellent support and that there could easily be another leg higher before any significant pullback.

Due to the ferocity of this move and the “black swan” feeling associated with the activity, I am hesitant to put a trade on and would like the chart to play out for another week.   

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No Change in the below commentary

The USD remains broken and all I know is that $1.1250 is massive on a Weekly Close and if she goes we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

The only thing I can add to the below is that if the last candle plays out this chart might have had a false break.

 But it is early days and should take 3 weeks to playout.

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

Nice break of the trend, but now has double tops, but as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 4 – 8 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance! – this has aged pretty well. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

I still favour the below view and the chart is now highly oversold.  

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

 

 

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

23 November 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

I cannot change too much of the below commentary as I have to stick to my levels now.

I am not convinced this is the start of a “new bull” market as the short time frames keep me wondering.

I will only consider the correction over once we have a weekly close over $5.95.

We are pleased to be square until we have more confidence in our view.  

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off and look to trade back sub $5.30 and even $4.80.

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

So much for sticking to my levels.

I will bail on this position, albeit slightly in the money (lucky me), because I am starting to see the last leg as consolidation, so I now have low conviction.

“We are short at $5.82, fingers crossed, as the below commentary has not changed.

Sell at best and all the way up to $5.94 with a stop over $5.96.

The downside targets will be sub $5.30 and hence this trade will have a 7/1 risk reward.

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies until we confirm a bull market over $6.00!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

This chart looks great, and there is no reason it cannot continue to rally from current levels; hence, I say BTD’s.

“We would look to start buying back sub R3250.’ – we hope you picked up some stock as this is from 2 weeks ago.  

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities.” – I cannot stress this enough!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

This chart is headed to its targets, and well done to those who believed in BTD’s.

There are zero reasons to pick a top on this chart and do not get caught short over the next week, but instead wait to buy.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

Congratulations to the Pigs who stayed long!!!!!

At this point, we could easily see this chart rally another $0.80 before coming off, and although we have missed the last part of this rally, we are now pleased to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

Congratulations to the Pigs who stayed long!!!!!

At this point, we could easily see this chart rally another $0.80 before coming off, and although we have missed the last part of this rally, we are now pleased to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

This chart now appears to want to target the  $0.30 level.

We are happy to sit back for a few weeks longer before getting involved. 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 This chart has traded R200 higher than its original targets and could likely go even further, but even so, we are now very happy to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

We are happy to sit back and allow this chart to develop over the coming weeks  as this is not the place to get involved.

The oscillator can keep going! 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

23 November 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

I am now calling the low of the market for the MT but will only get excited once we have a  Weekly Close over $13.02.  

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

 

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

I seriously doubt that this chart will make a new low but rather only a pullback!

I really like what I see currently so keep BTD’s and play the ranges until we have a move and close over $13.08 when the bull market confirms. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

After a massive rally and topping out, this chart is pulling back.

We are keen to get in again but will need more data / a better formation before making a decision. 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

More downside this last week, but this chart is due a serious kick as its extremely oversold.

We are keen to sell a rally but will need to see how high it wants to kick

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

After bottoming sub R7000, This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last six weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

New ATH’s and based on its formation, the chart wants to go higher.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (steady as she goes)

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

23 November 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Good Afternoon and apologies for not sending the reports out yesterday, but I have recently taken up Bog Snorkeling, and there was a new Bog I just had to Snorkel.

Back to business, the chart has traded up to and printed the much-vaunted R15.88 level and could quite possibly still print R16.08.

However, I still feel this is not the start of a ZAR blowout, and only a Weekly Close over R16.00 would have me negate this view.  

On the fundamental side, Fed Chairman Jerome “printer” Powell has been renominated for another term.

One would think this will be good for the ZAR as the carry trade attractiveness should be looking a lot sexier in the medium term. 

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

For those trading the inverted H&S congratulations, now might be the time to take some cash off the table.

I am not keen to have a position up here as only a Weekly Close over R16.00 would get me long and until it does square feels so right.  

Because R15.50 was such a significant upside level, it now serves as the “break lower level,” and until it is breached this chart remains bullish.

In closing, keep your stops tight!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

We are now two for two, and this makes me both nervous and excited!

Buy R15.17 – R15.11 with a stop under R15.0800 and look to sell out at R15.45.  – great trade!

Today we have another trade we are hunting.

Sell R16.08 with a stop over R16.20 with targets at R15.38.

This trade will have a RR of 58/10.

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The USD remains broken and all I know is that $1.1250 is massive on a Weekly Close and if she goes we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

The chart is trading nicely and as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 8 – 12 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance!

 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#I still favour the below view, but this chart is not very pretty at all.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

 

 

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Quick Fire Dollar / Rand Update

Quick Fire Dollar / Rand Update
18 November 2021

Weekly Candle

Good Morning Ladies & Gents

Herewith is the Weekly Candle chart, and as it stands, the charts looks pretty bullish with very decent support from R14.84 – R15.03.

This chart could quickly spike up to the R16.00 level and potentially slightly higher.

Reiterating what I wrote in Monday’s report, I am not sold that this is the major blowout and that a decent rally in this chart would be an opportunity to take some profit on your USD long positions.  

As for this afternoon’s rate decision, a 25 BIP hike seems to be priced in, so should the MPC not raise rates combined with USD strength, this could precipitate a potential R0.60 move higher.

While a hike and a hawkish speech could see the ZAR strengthen once again.

The latter is my preferred view.

Good luck out there, and I do not see the point of carrying sizable risk into this afternoon!