Month: July 2021

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

We have had the weekly close over R14.48 and now this is our new stop loss level based on a weekly close.

I would like the chart to consolidate over R14.48 for a week or two before looking to trade higher. 

The 233 week EMA, will now provide good ST support. 

Stick to the levels always, and remember that inter-week traded levels are noise and the weekly close is KING!     

 

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart remains bullish, but I don’t like the current candle its making and I would take something off the table should we pop under R14.80.

For this chart to be a running correction, this chart needs to rally hard before end of day July 28th, 2021!

I can’t find a reason to be short this chart at all.

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The 240 min is less sexy than the Weekly and Daily charts but has very decent support from R14.36 – R14.17.

Gun to the head, I think we see R14.26, and this IMO would be a great buying opportunity.  

 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

This chart needs a weekly close under $1.1753 for continued downside momentum. 

I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?

As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

Another chart that is close to moving either up very quickly or coming back to earth with a thud and with Wednesday’s FOMC both are possible. 

The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.

My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

What a one day move we have seen and if we close here today then there is every chance that this chart comes back down to test the 10.30% level in the coming weeks. 

I am keen to buy the chart into weakness, but I am just undecided if the move higher is from here or from another leg lower.

My bigger view is that we will see the chart rally & rally hard.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!! 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in commentary.

These are the buying levels IMO.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

 

 

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

The chart has seen a decent relief rally over the last week.

This correction remains far from over and could take a good few weeks, if not months, to complete.

Use all the rallies to take profit but keep a core long as the major trend/cycle is up.

Let the market come to you, and don’t chase it, as dogs that chase cars end up being run over.  

If you are lucky enough to see a move sub $12.40 (November 21), own it for the LT.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

The good news is that the gap is closed.

The bad news is that the chart now has double tops.

The best news is that this is a fantastic selling opportunity with a stop loss over $14.25 and targets at $12.61.

This trade gives you a RR of 5 /1 and in anyone’s book, a bet worth taking!

In the big picture, I want to own this chart for the LT from $12.40 -$11.60!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

There is very little to do here as this chart remains super ugly, and we will be staying well away for a few weeks. 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

This chart still has upside but is approaching overbought levels.

If I am right, I feel there will be a 2nd chance at the “buy & retire” level, and this should take a few weeks to play out.    

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

The road map is still intact, and I am waiting for a weekly close to prove it wrong.

I expect a decent pullback in the coming weeks, which seems to match my US bean view.  

Lets see just how this plays out, but I would most certainly buy a deep dip!  

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

The road map is still intact, and I have to stand by the RM until proven wrong on the weekly close.

I would not get sucked into buying bullish momentum, and patience is the key here when needing to buy! 

I don’t like this chart overall!

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

The correction seems to be playing out as per the road map, and I would profit from the rallies until further notice!

I feel that this correction will play out over many weeks, if not months and that waiting for the market to come to you is the key to putting together a decent long position at the proper levels.

Sub $0.50 is still on the cards.

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary

I feel the correction is over and that all dips are buying opportunities.

I still love this chart and believe being long will be the best ST win! 

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

This correction will either drag on for weeks, if not months, or rally hard from here.

The correction will only break with a weekly close of over $6.42.

I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.

Until then, all the deep dips REMAIN buying opportunities.

The rallies remain selling opportunities (profit taking only) and the dips remain buying opportunities (getting long)!

Rhythm in these volatile markets combined with position sizing is everything!

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

After a far more quiet week, nothing much has changed, and the gap at $5.73 has not been closed.

I am baffled in the short term and still feel that the $6.00 level will be sold by farmers and that the sub $5.30 “should” be bought by specs.

All I can say is that the market feels very tired at this point.

In my experience, this typically occurs before a good move, as most have cut their positions.

I remain a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

The low IMO is in after making a perfect 38.20% correction.

This chart is now looking to take its high, and based on my Dollar / Rand view combined with my longer-term Corn view makes perfect sense.

Continue to use the weakness to price, or you might be sorry you didn’t! 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

 I REMAIN keen to buy all the dips after the chart held significant support at the 38.20% retracement.  

The chart is in a corrective phase and looking to break out to the upside.

“Note I am not sure which expiry, but these charts lead me to believe that WM will rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to meet YM!” – I should quit while I am square on this view. 

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

I love this chart, and we have to get long now, hold and then decide where we will BTD!

And for all the Corn bulls out there, remember you cant have a PROPER Corn rally without a great wheat rally!

 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

For those that bought down to $6.14, well done as you are in for the ride of 2021 (as far as wheat is concerned)!

We are now waiting to add, so I will ring the bell if we feel it’s time to BTD!

Wheat is set to rally in the coming months, and opportunity beckons! – “This view is aging better than a Chateau du Pape 1985.”

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

I am loving this triangle formation and waiting patiently to buy at -$0.53.

 If you miss a downside buying opportunity, you can only get long on daily close over -$0.19. 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

I would get long and stay long as this chart looks excellent!!!

 A daily close over R5365 will confirm the breakout!

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

How fine the margins are, we were stopped out of our long before the chart rallied.

Alas, we shall take it on the chin and any other body part that hurts significantly.

I am now very keen to buy this chart but will monitor it for another week before jumping in basketballs and all.

The pain of being marginally wrong vs. completely wrong is massive.  

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

This chart is a beautiful example of why weekly closes are so important!

 I remain very bullish on this chart, but R14.48 remains the level we need to get over before there can be any further talk of a Bull market, and this could still take a few weeks.

The chart is working very hard to break above the 233 week EMA, which is camped at R14.50.

Clearing this hurdle and closing over it will be explosive!  

 The R13.90 level needs to hold on to the downside while holding, and all the dips are Dollar buying opportunities.

 Remember that with these corrections/consolidations, the market is trying to tire you out into cutting your position, frustrate you into believing your view is wrong and sow enough doubt that you take the opposite position!

Don’t DO IT!

Stick to the levels always, and remember that inter-week traded levels are noise and the weekly close is KING!     

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart remains bullish and, in this case, could be making an irregular flat or a running correction. 

Both of these above formations are bullish, but if this is a running correction, this chart should rally hard before July 28th, 2021!

 I can’t find a reason to be short this chart at all, and if you are looking for an entry, I will look to start buying sub R14.35.

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The 240 min is less sexy than the Weekly and Daily charts but has very decent support from R14.36 – R14.17.

 Gun to the head, I think we see R14.26, and this IMO would be a great buying opportunity.  

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No change in commentary

 This chart is trading in a lovely zig-zag pattern, and I believe that this is a consolidation to trade higher.

 I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?

 As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No change in commentary

 The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.

 My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

I still love this chart.

I am just undecided if the move higher is from here or from another leg lower.

 My bigger view is that we will see the chart rally & rally hard.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!! 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

These are the buying levels IMO.

 I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

 Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Firstly, on a technical level its appears that I will be correct and that we are starting a “super blow off” as our country burns and this gives me no pleasure.

 R14.48 remains the Weekly close level we need to get over before there can be any further talk of a Bull market.

The above coincides with the 55 & 233 Week EMA’s that have converged.

Clearing this hurdle will be nothing short of mammoth.  

 I am still seeking consolidation between R13.90 – R14.50 for another week (the longer, the better) before making its push higher.

The status quo remains until further notice.

The chart is consolidating before looking to move north. 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The Daily chart remains bullish.

 IMO the pullback is done. 

 This chart still has a few potential formations that can play out right now, but R14.55 is what we need to clear, then we will def test R15.66, while over that, this chart could make new ATH’s.

It remains early days! 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The 240 min traded just shy of our target at R14.55 and, for now, seems to be making a classic Irregular Flat formation.

 If the above plays out for another week between R14.00 – R14.55, the chart will have good impetus taking out the R14.55 level, and a daily close over this will see us shoot to R15.66!

 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

For now, the chart is trading in a lovely zig-zag pattern and I remain of the opinion that this is a consolidation to trade higher.

 I am still unsure if this is a correction to trade north of $1.24 in the coming months or if we hit the MT top?

 As with the DXY below this is either the start of big things or another / last leg in the trend before the Mother of all moves.

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No change in commentary

 The 96.60 level still looks to be on the cards, but as with the Euro, I am unsure if we push lower for the last leg down or if this chart blows higher.

 My alternative road map in white (no change yet) has a very similar outcome in the bigger picture.

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No change in commentary

 This chart looks good, with 10.30% having held amazingly well on the Daily & Weekly close.

 We should see a decent consolidation over the next few weeks.

My greater view is that we will see the chart rally from current levels.

The 10.30% level REMAINS CRITICAL on a Weekly close!!!!!

 On the downside, this chart is well overbought. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

I would love the 1.90% level to hold firm in the coming weeks, transitory inflation or not.

 I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

 

 Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken!

 

 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

Nothing has change on this chart over the last week.

This correction is far from over and could take a good few weeks, if not months, to complete.

 Use all the rallies to take profit but keep a core long as the major trend/cycle is up.

Let the market come to you, and don’t chase it, as dogs that chase cars end up being run over.  

If you are lucky enough to see a move sub $12.40 (November 21), own it for the LT.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

This chart is not in great nick and could look to close the gap and still have a H&S play out.

 For those who bought sub $13.58 use a move over $13.65 to get out and take cash!

 I do feel that this chart needs another leg lower in the next 8 – 14 days.    

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

The market printed $1.44 intra- day and traded well over our target at $1.34, but only closed at $1.1956.

 This chart is now super ugly and we will be staying well away for a few weeks. 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

Can’t really find anything new!

 The trend is well intact, and we are happily long at 46%, as we feel targets will be north of 50%.

 Let’s see how my “buy and retire” ages. – looks effortless, was super tough, and will pull this next week.  

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

The road map is still intact until further notice, but all the dips are buying opportunities!

 Momentum traders, good luck with this one, and all I can say is wait for the deep pullbacks to get long.  

 R7000 – R6600 should provide some outstanding support and would be the buying opportunity of 2021 IMHO.  – 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

The road map is still intact until further notice.

 I don’t trust this market and would definitely use strength to price.

 I would not get sucked into buying bullish momentum, and patience is the key here when needing to buy!  

 I don’t like this chart overall!

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary.

 The correction seems to be playing out as per the road map, and I would profit from the rallies until further notice!

 I feel that this correction will play out over many weeks, if not months and that waiting for the market to come to you is the key to putting together a decent long position at the proper levels.

 

Sub $0.50 is still on the cards.

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

I feel the correction is over and that all dips are buying opportunities.

 I still love this chart and believe being long will be the best ST win! 

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

This chart has traded lower and made a 50% retracement of the whole rally, which has some people concerned about the end of the Bull story.

I would only consider the Bull story to be over should we have a Weekly close under $4.56.

Until then, all the deep dips are buying opportunities.

Due to the deeper pullback, the upside target should be lowered.

But the length of the correction will depend on how violent the rally is!  

The rallies remain selling opportunities (profit taking) and buy the dips (getting long)! 

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

Volatility is here to stay no matter which road map plays out, either the Triangle or ABC correction.

The dips and ‘if” there is a dip on the WASDE today would be an excellent ST / MT buy as the size of that gap is more significant than the Grand Canyon!  

 I would add to the longs I put on under $5.20, even if this position is to only close the gap!

 I remain a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

This chart has made a perfect 38.20% correction, and although it has come back the chart is yet to take out the lows.

 Continue to use the weakness to price, price & price some more with potential targets over R4000.  

 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

  After significant support at the 38.20% retracement, I REMAIN keen to buy all the dips!  

The chart is in a corrective phase and looking to break out to the upside.

 “Note I am not sure which expiry, but these charts lead me to believe that WM will rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to meet YM!” – starting to age better this is!

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change on commentary

 When trading US wheat, patience is the key, and we are waiting to buy until further notice.

 However, if you have to partake in this market, I would buy the dip sub $5.70.

 When this chart eventually rallies, it will rally hard and fast, and most won’t be able to get long!

 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

Buy down to $6.13 if the chart gets that low (we are close) and look to cut under $6.09 on a Weekly close.

I am super keen to own it!

 Wheat is set to rally in the coming months, and opportunity beckons! 

 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

#No Change on commentary

 This chart has two outcomes IMO, it’s either going to play out in a straight rally or take everyone to the cleaners in a triangle.

 If it’s the rally, you can only get long on Daily close over -$0.19, and if it the triangle buy the dip as momentum buying will only get you killed!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 #No Change on commentary

 Continued consolidation on this chart still has me bullish, and I would not sell it at all.

This chart looks great!!!

 We are patiently waiting to buy a decent dip!  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change on commentary

 I am sticking with both views, for now, hence the no change in the commentary.

 This chart seems to be making a classical irregular flat formation.

 Buy at best with upside targets at €215, and this is a very ST trade, as once the kick is done, there should be more downside.  So – let’s see how this ages. (still in with a shout)

 The leg lower will be the chart’s last lower before a decent rally of €30+.

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

This market has us all on edge all the time with massive ranges and swings big enough to give even the most seasoned of traders a mini-stroke.

 This correction is far from over and could take a good few weeks, if not months, to complete.

 Use all the rallies to take profit but keep a core long as the major trend/cycle is up.

Let the market come to you, and don’t chase it, as dogs that chase cars end up being run over.  

 If you are lucky enough to see a move sub $12.40 (November 21), own it for the LT.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

The previous road map had the leg up we are currently experiencing, but I am skeptical we will come much lower in the MT than $13.75 once the ST Bull run is over.

 I would buy a daily close over $14.20 as there should be a $0.80 rally after that.

 

On the downside, remain square until we see a move sub $13.58 as then, and only then, will it be worth trying to pick a bottom.   

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

Great breakout, the view has been good, and I can’t find any reason for the chart to stop before $1.34!.

 I don’t have any new views as our patience counted for very little on this chart as now we will need to continue waiting.

 

I only hope we don’t wait as long as England has for a 2nd major football trophy!   

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

“The levels have worked well, although I am sure most of you are 15 years older!

The trend is well intact, and we are happily long at 46%, as we feel targets will be north of 50%.

 Let’s see how my “buy and retire” ages. – looks effortless, was super tough, and will pull this next week.  

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

If only all road maps worked this well, I would use any further strength to take some cash off the table and see how the chart plays out.

 Momentum traders, good luck with this one, and all I can say is wait for the deep pullbacks to get long.  

 R7000 – R6600 should provide some outstanding support and would be the buying opportunity of 2021 IMHO.  

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

Another one following the road map nicely, but I don’t trust this market and would definitely use strength to price.

 I would not get sucked into buying bullish momentum, and patience is the key here when needing to buy!  

 I don’t like this chart overall!

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

The correction seems to be playing out as per the road map, and I would profit from the rallies until further notice!

 I feel that this correction will play out over many weeks, if not months and that waiting for the market to come to you is the key to putting together a decent long position at the proper levels.

 

Sub $0.50 is still on the cards.

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

Firstly, we have seen a great kick off the lows, but this means little in the bigger picture as technically, and sadly, this chart should fail to make new highs and peak around $440.

 I still love this chart – I sound like a man with Stockholm syndrome, help!!! 

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Volatility to the max, wow! I am tired of just looking at the market, can’t imagine how all the traders are feeling!

Nothing has changed in the big picture with all the volatility, and my LT view remains the same until we have a significant upside Weekly Close.

 We now have a 38.2% correction from the highs, and the next couple of weeks will be critical to see if we have bottomed on the Weekly.  

 Once the correction is over, my ultimate target for corn is a new ATH possibly breaching $9.00 intra week.

Soft commodities having a tendency to extend further than one expects, so who knows just how high it could go!

 The rallies remain selling opportunities (profit taking) and buy the dips (getting long)! 

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

Volatility is here to stay no matter which road map plays out, either the triangle or the flat correction.

Yes, I say correction because although the moves have been massive, we are yet to take out the highs!  

 Although we have had a big upside move based on fundamentals, I would still advise taking some cash off the table while staying net long until we confirm the “new” Bull trend.

 If we are lucky enough to see sub $5.20, again, you will need to own it and wear it until we trade north of $8.00!

 I remain a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies!

Weekly WM Continuous Close

This chart has made a perfect 38.20% correction and has bounced like a champ off the lows!

 Continue to use the weakness to price, price & price some more with potential targets over R4000.  

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

 After significant support at the 38.20% retracement, I am keen as mustard to buy all the dips!  

The chart is in a corrective phase and looking to break out to the upside and HARD!

 “Note I am not sure which expiry, but these charts lead me to believe that WM will rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to meet YM!” – not aging well yet!

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

When trading US wheat, patience is the key, and we are waiting to buy until further notice.

 However, if you have to partake in this market, I would buy the dip sub $5.70.

 When this chart eventually rallies, it will rally hard and fast, and most won’t be able to get long!

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

Buy down to $6.13 if the chart gets that low.

I am super keen to own it!

 Wheat is set to rally hard in the coming months, and opportunity beckons! 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

This chart has two outcomes IMO, it’s either going to play out in a straight rally or take everyone to the cleaners in a triangle.

If it’s the rally, you can only get long on Daily close over -$0.19, and if it the triangle buy the dip as momentum buying will only get you killed!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

Continued consolidation on this chart still has me bullish, and I would not sell it at all.

 We are patiently waiting to buy a decent dip!  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

I am sticking with both views for now.

 This chart seems to be making a classical irregular flat formation.

 Buy at best with upside targets at €215, and this is a very ST trade, as once the kick is done, there should be more downside.  So – let’s see how this ages. (still in with a shout)

 The leg lower will be the chart’s last lower before a decent rally of €30+.