CJS Securities

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Month: December 2021

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

13 December 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

Good morning.

This will be our last report of 2021.

Merry Xmas and blessings to you and yours, I will see you in 2022.

#No Change in the commentary.

I am happy with the general long position but I would look to take some cash off the table over $13.15!

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! – I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

Nothing has changed on the below view and for those that are long I would look to fade into a rally over $13.10!

I really like what I see currently and a close over $12.95 will give us targets at $13.48 & $14.14!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

I am keen to get long on a pullback if the pullback ever comes.

I expect a re-testing of the highs. 

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

We are long at 42% and will look to buy scale down to 39.5% as this chart is now highly oversold and a kick to 43% is easily on the cards!

After kicking off extremely oversold levels and making a new MT low, the chart is remians at oversold levels and another leg lower to 42% will get me long. – lets see how this plays out. 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No change in the commentary

We are patiently awaiting the rally after the chart bottomed sub R7000.

This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last seven weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

#No change in commentary.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

I seem to have this wrong and although we are long, this chart is now grossly oversold on a weekly basis and we need to dig deep and buy more scale down with a stop under $0.52 as the rally is coming, even if its only a kick!

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89! – the correction was obviously not done.

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  – hope we don’t go broke before retiring. 

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

13 December 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Good morning.

This will be our last report of 2021.

Merry Xmas and blessings to you and yours, I will see you in 2022.

There REMAINS very little to add to the below view other than I would fade into a rally from $6.10 – $6.25 for profit taking and further fade into a move to $6.50 getting short.   

$5.95 remains a massive level to close above, but I feel we could be going into a complex correction that has upside targets from $6.30 – $7.35.

So I remain bullish, but I am not sure that this will be the start of the next “bull” phase, however I do see a $20 or $0.50 move higher within the next couple of weeks, so BTD’s down to $5.65!

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

I REMAIN very uncertain of the ST view on this chart.

I would buy at best and all the way down to Friday’s low with upside targets set at $6.18 -$6.31 which would give one around a $20.00 profit! – You should all be long now!

The above view will only be negated under $5.55.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

Onward and upward!

A rally over R3650 would trigger me to take profits!

“We would look to start buying back sub R3250.’ – we hope you picked up some stock as this is from 3 weeks ago.  

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities.” – I cannot stress this enough!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

PLEASE take profit once we get near the target area and DO NOT get married to the long position. – we are nearly there!!!!

The below view is still in place but I would advise putting in a stop profit should we have a daily close under R3610 on the Mar 2022 contract.

This chart is headed to its targets, and well done to those who believed in BTD’s.

There are zero reasons to pick a top on this chart and do not get caught short over the next week, but instead wait to buy.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

Although wheat has a bullish story, the chart can stuff around and take all your money before rallying again.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

Although wheat has a bullish story, the chart can stuff around and take all your money before rallying again.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

My current bias is to look for a selling opportunity as I feel the next big move will be lower.

I will sell at best all the way up with a stop over the high! 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

#No change in the commentary.

After a significant drop, the chart has recovered nicely

However this does not mean we are keen buyers and in fact should we see a rally toward the previous highs I would be looking to get short.  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

#No change in the commentary.

I would sell this chart at €293 – €312 size as this correction is far from over!

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

13 December 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Firstly, this will be the last report until the new year, and with that, I wish you and your families a blessed Xmas, and may 2022 be a year of happiness and prosperity.  

Weekly, very little has changed, although the chart looks to have completed its pullback to the high R15.60’s.

The Weekly Close remains bullish until we have a close under R15.35 and its with this in mind that I would look to get long from R15.70 – R15.35.  

The only thing that I do not like about this chart is that currently we are sitting at overbought levels.

This however can last longer than your patience and squeeze you out of your positions as we are working on a weekly close.   

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The chart remains strictly bullish, and the pullback could easily be completed having traded into the “pullback zone.”

Should this chart trade under R15.47 the bullish technical action would be negated.

This chart is super volatile and R0.25 intra day moves are the norm, so again please keep your stops tight and only ever trade when you are comfortable and not because you have FOMO!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The R16.20 sell trade never materialized.

However, we have a new trade on the cards that I have high hopes and  a firm conviction!

Buy R15.88 – R15.73 with a stop under R15.66 with targets at R16.48.

This trade will have a RR of 46/10.

As always keep your stops tight, with zero emotion!

If this plays out the bottom of the cloud should provide some serious support

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No change in the commentary.

The $1.1250 proves just how massive a support level it is, and if she goes, we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

As things stand though, it is very unclear whether or not this chart is completing a correction that will turn up from current levels or if it is taking a breather, but what I do know that a pullback from here is on the cards no matter the greater outcome.  

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

We are STILL waiting patiently to see if the below plays out.

The only thing I can add to the below is that if the last candle plays out this chart might have had a false break.

But it is early days and should take 3 – 6 weeks to playout.

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No Change in the commentary.

HUGE double tops!!!!

However, as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 4 – 8 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance! – this has aged pretty well. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

All I can say is the chart is kicking nicely after being super oversold.

I have no strong view and will need the chart to play out over the next few weeks. 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

06 December 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

I am happy with the general long position but I would look to take some cash off the table over $13.15!

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! – I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

Nothing has changed on the below view and for those that are long I would look to fade into a rally over $13.10!

I really like what I see currently and close over $12.95 will give us targets at $13.48 & $14.14!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

With the below view playing out very nicely, I am keen to get long on a pullback but will give the chart another week to play out.

This chart has had a great pullback to it’s support and with the oscillator coming off oversold levels, I expect a re-testing of the highs. 

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

After kicking off extremely oversold levels and making a new MT low, the chart is back at oversold level and another leg lower to 42% will get me long. 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

We are patiently awaiting the rally after the chart bottomed sub R7000.

This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last seven weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

I am so over spot market suns and cant wait for it to go off the board.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

I remain bullish and all I can say from here is that patience will be the key to unlocking profit.

The chart is approaching oversold levels with nothing having changed on the below view.  

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

06 December 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

There is very little to add to the below view other than I would fade into a rally from $6.10 – $6.25 for profit taking and further fade into a move to $6.50 getting short.  

$5.95 remains a massive level to close above, but I feel we could be going into a complex correction that has upside targets from $6.30 – $7.35.

So I remain bullish, but I am not sure that this will be the start of the next “bull” phase, however I do see $20 + move higher within the next couple of weeks, so BTD’s down to $5.65!

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

I am very uncertain of the ST view on this chart.

I would buy at best and all the way down to Friday’s low with upside targets set at $6.18 -$6.31 which would give one around a $20.00 profit! – You should all be long now!

The above view will only be negated under $5.55.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

Firstly, we have not had a daily close under R3400 on the Mar 2022 contract since last Monday.

A rally over R3650 would trigger me to take profits!

“We would look to start buying back sub R3250.’ – we hope you picked up some stock as this is from 3 weeks ago.  

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities.” – I cannot stress this enough!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

PLEASE take profit once we near the target area and DO NOT get married to the long position.

The below view is still in place but I would advise putting in a stop profit should we have a daily close under R3610 on the Mar 2022 contract.

This chart is headed to its targets, and well done to those who believed in BTD’s.

There are zero reasons to pick a top on this chart and do not get caught short over the next week, but instead wait to buy.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

The run was beyond amazing and well done to all as there was great cash on the table.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

The run was beyond amazing and well done to all as there was great cash on the table.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

The targets have been reached and we are happy to sit out for a week or two.

My current bias is to look for a selling opportunity as I feel the next big move will be lower. 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 After a major drop the chart has recovered nicely, however this does not mean we are keen buyers and in fact should we see a rally toward the previous highs I would be looking to get short.  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

Hand on heart and my tripod on the chopping block, I would sell this chart at €293 – €312 in size as this correction is far from over!

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

06 December 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

 After a week of serious volatility, the price has not actually done much on a weekly basis.

The chart appears very much in a corrective phase and could still pullback to the R15.60’s.

The Weekly Close remains bullish until we have a close under R15.35 and its with this in mind that I would look to get long from R15.70 – R15.35.   

The only thing that I do not like about this chart is that currently we are sitting at overbought levels.

This however can last longer than your patience and squeeze you out of your positions as we are working on a weekly close.   

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The chart remains strictly bullish although the pullback does not appear to be complete as I would like a move into the “pullback zone”.

Should this chart trade under R15.47 the bullish technical action would be negated.

This chart is super volatile and R0.25 intra day moves are the norm, so again please keep your stops tight and only ever trade when you are comfortable and not because you have FOMO!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

WOW, the volatility is crazy and one could have lost a fortune between R15.80 & R16.20.

I see an opportunity this week to make some cash with a decent RR, so here keeping our fingers crossed it plays out!

Sell R16.20 with a stop over R16.2650 with targets at R15.68.

This trade will have a RR of 8/1.

As always keep your stops tight, with zero emotion!

If this plays out the bottom of the cloud should provide some serious support

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The $1.1250 is proving just how massive a support level it is and if she goes we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

As things stand though, it is very unclear whether or not this chart is completing a correction that will turn up from current levels or if it is taking a breather, but what I do know that a pullback from here is on the cards no matter the greater outcome.  

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

  We are waiting patiently to see is the below plays out.

The only thing I can add to the below is that if the last candle plays out this chart might have had a false break.

But it is early days and should take 3 weeks to playout.

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

HUGE double tops!!!!

However, as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 4 – 8 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance! – this has aged pretty well. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

We have been stopped out and all I can say is that this chart is now HIGHLY oversold.

I have no strong view and will need the chart to play out over the next few weeks.