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Month: April 2022

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

25 April 2022

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

All the pullbacks are buying opportunities, as $15.84 should provide massive support.

I would use a move to sub $16.00 to get long in size as this rodeo is far from over!

240 Min CBOT May 22 Soybean Candle Chart

The 240 min chart is clearly busy making a correction and based on its current formation we could be headed to $15.75.

A move of this nature would be considered a massive buying opportunity. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

I will be taking profit on the below & congratulations to all who were long.

I am going to be very naughty here and go long with a stop under $1.69.  – sometimes its wonderful to be this naughty!

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

We are STILL happy to sit and wait to buy in the coming weeks as pretty much nothing has changed plus this chart is now grossly overbought. 

 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

There remains no reason to sell this chart!

We seem to be done with the correction and headed to the previous highs although there should be better buying opportunities over the next week or two.  

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

Technically I am very confused and will be happy to sit on the side line until further notice. 

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

Finally we traded and printed $0.80, yeah baby!!!

Well done to all the longs that stayed long and did not chicken out.

I would now advise taking your cash and keeping your cash while letting the market play out for a good few weeks.  

 

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

This market looks corrective and the oscillator is pretty low and hence we now waiting to buy, but as of yet I do not have a level. 

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

25 April 2022

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

This chart has taken many a player to the cleaners.

I still favour more upside on a weekly close, but I am starting to feel the market overplay its hand and hence I would look to exit all long positions and say thank you for the wonderful rally.  

On the flipside I am dying to short this market as not a single human actually knows where value is, but as the saying goes “today’s high could be tomorrows low” and it is with this in mind that I have zero conviction to pick a top.  

240 Min May22 Corn Candle Chart Close

The 240 min charts support has held well and now I have to believe that any move lower from current levels is a buying opportunity.

If the chart rallies from here or $0.15 lower the upside targets will be over the $9.00 level.   

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

Even though the chart has traded R4400, although I feel its high, there is ZERO technical reason to sell this chart.  

But if you are a producer and you are reading this, now if your chance to price, use strength in these markets to price

Weekly YM Continuous Close

The techs looks really good and I cannot find a reason to be short this chart.

We could easily see the price rally from here.

If you are a producer and you are reading this, now is your chance to price, use the strength in these markets to price.  

Don’t be shy as we need to export urgently!

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary.

The correction could be well and truly over and we will now monitor the formation over the week before looking at getting long.

Our bias is now to the long side.  

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

#No Change in commentary.

The correction could be well and truly over and we will now monitor the formation over the week before looking at getting long.

Our bias is now to the long side.  

 

Weekly Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

 I want to get long this chart, but will need to wait for a pullback.

The chart REMAINS highly overbought on a weekly basis.  

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

#No Change in commentary.

This chart much like US wheat seems to done with its correction and we will be looking at getting long under R6900. – unfortunately there was very little opportunity

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

This chart’s correction is over and I am expecting new highs!

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

25 April 2022

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Ladies and Gentlemen.

I repeat again I have not changed any of my views and that the below (please read) is playing out very nicely.

Before reaching my ultimate downside targets, the Weekly chart could quickly turn around within the next R0.40 and fly back to the high R15’s and shake all the comfy ZAR longs out. – this has happened and is happening!   

I still see the below taking place over time.

What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.

I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!

This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity. – we look well on our way to these levels!

I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s. – this view is playing out better than a Koos Kombuis concert!

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

What a break, and now we need to have patience to get long as a pullback to the R15.30’s will be a buying opportunity.

I would STILL like a leg higher into the high R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s. – as it stands the R16’s and more could well be on the cards. 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

There was no chance to get long sub R14.40. 

We are now waiting to buy sub R15.40 – R15.20, if we get that lucky

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

As it stands this chart could end up going to parity, but in all honesty I remain uncertain regarding the big picture.

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

I currently have zero conviction in the chart, but all I can say is that it is now grossly oversold.  

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No Change in Commentary.

The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.

The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.  

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

This chart has printed its targets!

I would not at all be surprised to see a pullback bought as there is zero reason that this chart has made its high. 

 

 

 

 

 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

11 April 2022

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

Even though I feel this chart needs a decent correction, I would in no way be looking to sell it in the MT.

If we are busy correcting in a greater bull market then we could be headed down towards the $15.25 as a target.  

Although we are in the throws of a raging bull market I will be patiently waiting to get long as sometimes these pullbacks go deeper than most anticipate. 

240 Min CBOT May 22 Soybean Candle Chart

The 240 min chart is clearly busy making a correction and there is not much to do as we have had no confirmation in either direction. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

I am going to be very naughty here and go long with a stop under $1.69.  

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

We are STILL happy to sit and wait to buy in the coming weeks as pretty much nothing has changed. 

 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

There is no reason to sell this chart!

We seem to be done with the correction and headed to the previous highs. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

Technically this chart has buried many players and with this in mind, I have decided to do nothing as I want to live a while longer!

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

Even though we are square, there is definitely still upside in the chart. 

 

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

Nothing has changed on the weekly chart, as it should continue to rally from here!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

11 April 2022

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

So much for the correction, and even though we are at new highs I would struggle to get long here on a technical basis, this is most likely why it will rally hard.

If this rally fails I would look for a pullback down to the $7.05 level in the coming weeks.

Should this chart correct it would in no way be a bear market, but rather a correction in a greater bull market.  

240 Min May22 Corn Candle Chart Close

The 240 min chart is very interesting as it has a few potential formations.

It could make double tops and fail, it could have a false break and fail or it could just break hard through the tops.

I am as unsure of this as I am of the next French President and hence when in doubt stay well out!

Weekly WM Continuous Close

The chart can still trade higher in the ST and possibly print as high as R4400 before coming lower.

I can’t find a reason to be short this chart with only the top of the channel providing some resistance.  

I have no strong views other than to urge producers to price as anything can happen. 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

The techs looks really good and I cannot find a reason to be short this chart.

We could easily see the price rally from here.

I have no strong views other than to urge producers to price as anything can happen. 

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

The correction could be well and truly over and we will now monitor the formation over the week before looking at getting long.

Our bias is now to the long side.  

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

The correction could be well and truly over and we will now monitor the formation over the week before looking at getting long.

Our bias is now to the long side.  

 

Weekly Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

 I want to get long this chart, but will need to wait for a pullback.

The chart is now highly overbought on a weekly basis.  

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

This chart much like US wheat seems to done with its correction and we will be looking at getting long under R6900.

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

This chart’s correction could be over but  less so than US wheat and hence we will stay out for now.  

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

11 April 2022

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

I repeat ad nauseam that I am very much a ZAR bull and have been for months now.

Before reaching my ultimate downside targets, the Weekly chart could quickly turn around within the next R0.40 and fly back to the high R15’s and shake all the comfy ZAR longs out.    

I still see the below taking place over time.

What I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.

I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!

This chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks. – I would use this as a USD selling opportunity.

Until then, the range is likely to be R14.33 – R15.50 and I would seriously consider owning the bottom of the range!  

I am happy to be long the Dollar down to the R14.40’s.  

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

This chart’s MT downside targets have been reached and congratulations to all those that were long ZAR.

The chart has failed to have a significant rally off the lows and I would now wait to either get short over R14.88 or long sub R14.20.

I would STILL like a leg higher into the high R16’s to complete the chart, but because of this leg being very deep, the kick could fail in the high R15’s. – we will watch as we go!

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The cloud resistance could not have worked more perfectly!

I am patiently waiting to see how low this chart can go, as the next trade I put on will be from the long side, I am hoping for a sub R14.22 long. 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

I remain uncertain regarding the big picture as this chart could be consolidating for a serious move lower, but right now I would advise staying out!

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

I currently have zero conviction in the chart and hence am happy to stay right out. 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No Change in Commentary.

The below target level was missed with 0.08% and it could all be over bar the shouting.

The chart remains range-bound but we feel the move higher toward the top of the range at 11.40% is on the cards before looking to start a severe leg lower to sub 9.00%.  

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary

This chart is heading to 3.00% in my opinion.

I would buy any move back the MT trend line!