Month: August 2022

It’s been a long road to get back to $6.41 for the MT low at $5.62.

Based on the chart’s current formation, there is every possibility that we can experience a 61.8% retracement and print $6.80.

With the above in mind, I would like to go on the record as saying that I would fade a rally and that I am not super bullish overall.

My reasons are:

•  We have struggled to get up here with all the bad news.
• We have SAM yet to plant.
• Has China already stockpiled with a war on the horizon?
• Will China purchase more Brazilian corn?
• How long can global prices stay high with inflation running rampant?
• The US farmer has much to price even at 170 BPA.
• Why would commercials go super long here and not continue hand to mouth?
• How much upside is there for funds to build a new long position here, and who would they eventually sell to?

Good Luck to all. It’s rough out there!

It’s been a long three weeks, with volatility being the order of the day and the ZAR trading on its steam, and frankly, I have had no objective view, hence my reluctance to post anything.  

Please keep the last few weeks in the memory bank when reading the below commentary.

As most of you will know, I have been bearish on the ZAR and looking for upside targets from R17.50 – R18.30.

This was predominantly why I was confused, as I felt the chart could be done.

Based on this last move, I am convinced that we will see the last leg higher and although I have R18.30 as an upside target, please note that the ZAR has a propensity to overshoot in both directions.

Once this last leg up has been completed, my LT view that we see the ZAR strengthen is still very much on the cards.

The carry is your friend, never forget.