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Month: November 2021

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

08 November 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

After thinking we made a low albeit a MT and not a LT low this chart now appears to want to come down way further than initially anticipated.

As previously mentioned only a rally and Weekly Close over $13.02 will get me really excited.  

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! – I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at really good levels sub $12.00 and for those that know the crypto markets the best advice I can give right here, right now is to hold and buy more on the way down as the price action is starting to look very much like it wants to print $11.50.   

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

Firstly, not much has changed from the below view from last week, as we are seeing the leg lower and most should have taken some cash off the table.

However, now is the time to buy those positions back and buy more all the way down to $11.50 as the kick, aka the real rally, is not far away!

“I don’t like this formation and although it can trade higher this chart needs and should see another leg lower.

My view is to take cash off the table over $12.40 and keep BTFD’s.

This view is valid as until we have a move and close over $13.08 the bull market is not yet confirmed. “

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

New highs have been made but this chart is just too wild for our likening and as the saying goes “a fool and money are soon parted”.   

We are happy to sit out for now. 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

This chart can make a new high and in all likelihood will make a new high as long as the price stays above 47% ,so for those that are long please keep your stops tight.

On the flip side this chart is nearing seriously overbought levels.  

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. 

The chart is coming off beautifully and, with a bit of luck, could still trade as low as R6700.00.

Irrespective of the market moving, one should use weakness to price, daily!

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

People the price action on this chart is binary, although based on pure techs its taking a little breather before looking to go higher.

I would advise having no part in this as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (steady as she goes)

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

The below commentary makes me feel like I am in the Twilight Zone, but maybe I like it there!

We are long and we are hoping, which is a terrible feeling.

This chart will kick sooner or later, but its Fugly and could still print as low as $288, but we are long and burning worse than a California wild fire, but feel a move sub $290 will be an opportunity to buy more!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

08 November 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

There is no change in the below commentary and all I can say is that I am happy we are out as there are potentially a few different outcomes.

“This corn chart has traded beautifully and has now printed its targets.

I would look to take profit on my longs and give the chart a few days to play out as I will only consider the correction over on a weekly close over $5.95.

We are very happy to be square until we have more confidence in our view and until then I am happy to live by the saying that one is only as good as your last trade.  

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off and look to trade back sub $5.30 and even $4.80.”

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

We are short at $5.82, fingers crossed, as the below commentary has not changed.

“Sell at best and all the way up to $5.94 with a stop over $5.96.

The downside targets will be sub $5.30 and hence this trade will have a 7/1 risk reward.

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies until we confirm a bull market over $6.00!.”

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

I trust you took some risk off the table after last Monday’s report.

We would look to start buying back sub R3250.

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities. 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

I trust you took some risk off the table after last Monday’s report.

“I would look to take some profits into strength as a pullback will be hard and fast and we would like the ability to buy back.” – I hope you all took some cash off the table.  

Now is the time to look to buy back those shorts.

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

I hope you have all taken the money, as this chart can still rally but right now it’s late at night.  

We are now very happy to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

I hope you have all taken the money, as this chart can still rally but right now it’s late at night.  

We are now very happy to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

This chart has topped out for the MT and traded just short of its targets at $0.28.

We are happy to sit back for a few weeks.

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 I hope you have all taken the money, as this chart has the potential to continue to come off and potentially trade sub R5200.  

We are now very happy to sit back and wait until the next opportunity comes our way!

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

We are happy to sit back and allow this chart to develop over the coming weeks.

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

08 November 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

I am very happy that I called for profits to be taken last week as this chart has now given me greater impetus on my LT view.

The ST targets have been reached and while there is every chance the chart will again look to test R15.50 and potentially even R15.80, in my bigger picture view I would look to sell a rally of this nature as I currently feel strongly that this chart is not yet ready for its “major break” higher.  

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

As with the Weekly chart I am super chuffed that I advised taking the cash after what was a great rally and going square.  

Last week I mentioned that I was not sure what we are looking at and that  there is a possibility that we could be experiencing an irregular flat formation, right now I am pretty damn sure we are in the irregular flat and that this chart has an opportunity to rally again and test R15.50 and potentially even R15.80, but a that a rally of this nature would be a great sell IMO.  

In closing if you are keen to buy the USD keep you stop under R14.88!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

Firstly, it’s a pity the chart failed at R15.50 and had zero follow through, but people based on my longer term views I have a trade that might work for you and hopefully we have not missed the bus with this morning’s low being R14.9367.

Buy R15.00 – R14.90 with a stop under R14.8650.

Targets will be at R15.47 – R15.66 and this trade will have a 35 / 10 risk reward!

Fingers crossed we can execute. 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary  

I honestly have no idea what I am looking at on this chart because at a glance the chart would appear bearish but yet it lacks follow through.

IMO we should see this chart look to target the top of the range again, but in all honesty I would not put money on it.

We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight. 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

Looking at how this chart is moving I can’t stress just how important the 95 level is on a weekly close!

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

I am not happy with what I am looking at and this is either a correction to trade higher or we could be staring at the start of a move that could take this chart sub 9.00%!

The current formation has more than two potential outcomes and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view while the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid, I hope!   

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

I still favour the below view but this chart is not very pretty at all.

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!

 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

02 November 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

We have printed sub $12.00 and IMO the MT low is in, along with the 89 week EMA holding solidly.

In short the correction could well be over but we would need a $1.00 rally and Weekly Close over $13.02 to get me really excited.  

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! – I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

240 Min CBOT November 21 Soybean Candle Chart

I don’t like this formation and although it can trade higher this chart needs and should see another leg lower.

My view is to take cash off the table over $12.40 and keep BTFD’s.

This view is valid as untill we have a move and close over $13.08 the bull market is not yet confirmed. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

This chart is wild and although its now taking a breather, its going to take out the highs in the coming weeks.

We might look to get involved but the set up would have to be perfect and we are happy to sit out for now. 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

This chart can make a new high and in all likelihood will make a new high as long as the price stays above 47% ,so for those that are long please keep your stops tight. 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. 

The chart is coming off beautifully and, with a bit of luck, could still trade as low as R6700.00.

Irrespective of the market moving, one should use weakness to price, daily!

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

This chart has now printed R11 000 on multiple occasions and all I can say is that one should not be in this market right now.    

If you are long you could be overplaying your hand.  

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

#No Change in Commentary. (steady as she goes)

I am super bullish and starting to wonder if the energy / power issues in China will transpire as the trigger for the below number to play out?

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

We are long and we are hoping, which is a terrible feeling.

This chart will kick sooner or later, but its Fugly and could still print as low as $288, but we are long and burning worse than a California wild fire, but feel a move sub $290 will be an opportunity to buy more!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

02 November 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

This corn chart has traded beautifully and has now printed its targets.

I would look to take profit on my longs and give the chart a few days to play out as I will only consider the correction over on a weekly close over $5.95. 

We are very happy to be square until we have more confidence in our view and until then I am happy to live by the saying that one is only as good as your last trade.  

I REMAIN really bullish in the “big picture” but, we could easily see this market come off and look to trade back sub $5.30.

240 Min December 21 Corn Candle Chart Close

The chart has printed the high target set at $5.80 and we are super happy and would now happily sit square.

The next trade on the list is to sell at best and all the way up to $5.94 with a stop over $5.96.

The downside targets will be sub $5.30 and hence this trade will have a 7/1 risk reward.

I REMAIN a proponent of BTD’s and take cash on the rallies until we confirm a bull market over $6.00!.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

The chart looks great and steady as she goes even though we are lagging parity daily.  

I would continue to take risk off the table the higher we go as a R200 – R300 pullback will be hard and fast and we do not want to be caught flat footed.

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities. 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

The chart looks great and headed to the target area.

I would look to take some profits into strength as a pullback will be hard and fast and we would like the ability to buy back.

In short steady as she goes and don’t rock the boat!

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

Firstly, for all those that held and followed the road map, congratulations!

I hope you are all planning your Maldives holidays.   

Now that we have given ourselves the biggest pat on the back, targets have almost been reached and we would take the cash and go square!

We have happy little piggy banks.  

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

As with KC, great effort to hold and follow the road map!

Now is the time to take the money, sit back and enjoy our handy work as it does not often play out as well as this! 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

For those that held a little longer (we did not) and sold over $0.20 congratulations!

The market traded just short of its targets at $0.28 and the top seems to be in for now!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

The kick to R6000 on the Dec contract is here and the chart could look to trade a little higher.

For those that bought the dip well done, but I would definitely look to take profits here and if I were a producer I would look to hedge my crop over R6000.

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

We made a mammoth profit on this long position and would like to congratulate you all.

This chart is now heading into overbought territory and we are happy to sit out for a few weeks. 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

02 November 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Apologies for being away last week, but I am back and with not much to add as these charts have been playing out perfectly.

The pullback to R14.37 was a little deeper than expected but was very short lived.

The inverted H&S formation has targets from R15.50 – R15.86 and it is with these targets in mind that I would look to take profit over R15.50 in what has been a great run.  

The chart still has a potentially “bigger picture” formation that needs to play out and we are now very happy to sit back and allow the price to play out over the next 6 – 10 trading days before making our next call. 

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

As mentioned in the Weekly commentary the chart traded around R0.13 lower than expected but was always within the correction range.

We are very close to the targets (R15.70 – R15.86) set out in our now long running scenario #2 and we would look to take the cash and go square.

I feel the need to square up based on the fact that I do not trust this chart as there is a possibility that we could be experiencing an irregular flat formation and if so this would lead to a pullback to the low R14’s once the MT top has been printed.  

In closing there are too many variables and hence taking the money right now just feels so right!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

We were long and stopped and as the saying goes “so are the days of our lives”.

I know that micro manging positions is very difficult, but this will not stop us from trying and so we have a new trade to look at on a ST basis.

Sell R15.62 – R15.86 with a stop over R15.88.

Targets will be at R14.23 and this trade will have a 1089 / 100 risk reward! 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

I honestly have no idea what I am looking at on this chart because at a glance the chart would appear bearish but yet it lacks follow through.

IMO we should see this chart look to target the top of the range again, but in all honesty I would not put money on it.

We will need this chart to play out over a few weeks before “hopefully” gaining greater insight. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

#No Change in Commentary  

The range REMAINS 95 -88 and a dip sub 90 is a buy of note while a rally and daily close over 95 would also get me long and until then we will sit on our hands and wait!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

The chart has a nice rounding bottom and we could potentially look at targeting the 11.40% level.  

The current formation has more than two potential outcomes and hence we are keen to stay out until we have a better view while the downside at 10.30% should remain very solid.   

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary  

I would look at buying a move back to 1.90% – 1.80%  that will have upside targets from 2.58% – 2.71%.

Use an SL under 1.70%.

Please note that only a weekly close of over 3.50% will confirm that the trend has been broken.

As for now the downtrend is still intact!