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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

07 February 2022

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

As witnessed over the last few weeks, our trading theme this year, being the year of patience, could not be more apt!

Not much has changed over the last two weeks, and congratulations to all the longs who took profit from $6.10 – $6.25.

For those that have faded the rally to over $6.40, I am with you and firmly believe that if we see a continued rally, the $6.60’s will be the highs.  

I am convinced that the chart will not turn into a massive bull market from here and that my big picture view is that the following $1.00 move will be lower rather than higher (could be famous last words).

Should my above view be correct this chart could be in for a move back towards the low $5.00’s, before becoming a serious buying opportunity once again. 

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

I don’t like the gaps and formation I am seeing and should we see a move back over the $6.40’s I would bash the market harder than a Piñata on my birthday!

If my above view is correct, we could be in for a vicious ST bear market.

Think about what move would hurt the most players, and the answer is a move back sub $6.00!

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

People, I cannot emphasize just how strong these WEEKLY CLOSE DOUBLE TOPS are and right now, in the face of high crude and SAM, this chart is not a buy.

Right now IMO any rally back over R3700 would constitute a selling opportunity. 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

This chart has reached its target zone and has made MASSIVE Weekly Close double tops.

The YM chart looks much better than WM currently, and pullback could well be a buying opportunity, but it looks decidedly like the buy level will only R300 plus lower than where we are now. 

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

I like this chart and would be looking at buying a move sub $8.00 – $7.44 as I can see the price heading towards $9.50 before making a significant correction! – this is aging really well, especially since the chart turned around at $7.44.

Keep your eyes on Corn V Wheat as corn has limited upside, IMO.

An unwinding of the spread could give wheat the kick we require. 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

I like this chart and would be looking at buying at best down to $7.43 as I can see the price heading towards $9.44 before making a significant correction! – another call aging well.

I truly feel that from here, the ST / MT low is in. 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

The chart has kicked super well-oversold levels.   

Gun to the head I would look to sell a rally over $0.30! – the gun is getting closer, and I am not changing my mind!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

I cannot change the below commentary as it’s playing out perfectly.   

The chart seems to be making a decent correction that should rally over R600 higher within the next ten weeks (it has STILL not broken higher yet).

A rally of this nature would be considered a selling opportunity, but before that enjoy the ride higher!

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

So much for the correction being over and right now all I can say is stay out! 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

07 February 2022

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

There is very little that I can add to the commentary as nothing has changed in the big picture.

The range remains solid for now.

Most of you will not like or believe my LT view, but alas, I am not here to appease but only to call it the way I see it, and what I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.

I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!

Now before everyone (who believes me) goes selling their house to fund a Dollar short position, be cognitive of the fact that this chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks.

This could easily be attributed to Russia invading the Ukraine or China invading Taiwan or both, which should provide a risk – off environment, causing a quick and painful weakening of the ZAR.

An event of this nature should be seen for exactly what it is, an opportunity to sell the USD and buy the ZAR.

I will be doing some ad-hoc research on this later in the week to fully explain why I strongly feel that the above view will playout.

Until then, the range is likely to be R14.88 – R15.50 and I would seriously consider owning the bottom of the range!  

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

We missed the opportunity to get long with a few cents and are now happy to wait.

The daily chart fits into my weekly view.

I want a last leg higher into the R16’s to complete the chart. (but what I want does not count)

I want everyone’s theme for 2022 to be PATIENCE, because for what I can see across all markets is that picking our spot will be more important than ever, especially as this could be the year we encounter a wedge of Black Swans.   

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

We missed our long with a few cents even though the diagonal worked perfectly.

But better to miss than to burn, I always say.  

This chart is middle of the range but can surprise with a last leg lower before looking to trade higher.

And it’s with this in mind that I am happy to hang back another week and let the chart play out. 

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

This chart remains well within the triangle range, while $1.1250 remains MASSIVE support.  

In the ST, should we see this chart move back over $1.450 – $1.16!  – This is currently underway. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

 I am changing my view until further notice, and I think we are headed back to the 88.00 level over the next few months.

The chart’s upside momentum has failed. IMO

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No Change in Commentary

The chart is very range-bound, and all I can add from here is that the top of the range (11.40%ish) will be a fantastic buy as the more significant formation is starting to appear more and more like a consolidation for a severe leg lower.  

The chart is also kicking very nicely off over sold levels. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

#No Change in Commentary

This chart is heading to 3.00% in my opinion.

I would buy any move back the MT trend line!

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ZAR Commodity Correlation

ZAR Commodity Correlation
25 January 2022

Dollar Rand (White) overlayed with CRB Index (Green)

Good Afternoon all.

After making my bold prediction yesterday the Dollar Rand will trade towards the R11.50 level over the next 17 – 24 months, I have been inundated with messages asking me why and hence I have decided to send this out to explain my view.

Firstly, the weekly report that I send out is purely technical, although I am very cognisant of the macro factors.

After making a significant pullback from the Covid high, the Dollar Rand looks very much to be making what I refer to as an “irregular flat” formation.

This formation will be complete at R11.57 in a perfect technical scenario, while the actual range is R13.00 – R11.57.

I have been perplexed as to why the ZAR could become this strong, especially in a world where the Fed has turned Hawkish, but alas, I believe my charts first and foremost.

Last week I stumbled on some research showing the ZAR’s 87.39% correlation to the CRB Index over ten years.

I decided to overlay the ZAR & the CRB Index (see chart), and one can see that the correlation is strong.

If one believes in the commodity bull market, one cannot ignore the fact that the ZAR should strengthen significantly over the next 24 months.          

Please note that the above view does not mean the ZAR cannot weaken as there are Black Swans that could quickly raise their heads this year with geopolitical tensions that could see the ZAR go through a risk-off environment before strengthening.

However, I can now confidently say that all significant spikes relating to ZAR weakness would constitute a short of the Dollar Rand chart.

In closing, the state of the economy, the potholes in your suburb, and the general negativity you may feel have nothing to do with the direction of the ZAR, and at this stage, the ZAR is set to go where it hurts the most players!

Happy hunting, and may 2022 be the year of patience in your trading.        

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

24 January 2022

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

Good afternoon and blessings for 2022 where I would like us all to adopt the theme “Patience” for the year.

It has been five weeks since we last communicated, but congratulations to all the longs that made a small killing!

This chart is still bullish and has upside yet before looking to correct.

Look to the $15.00 level to provide some very decent resistance! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

The 240 min chart is still looking good, but I feel that the next leg up will be the last before making a decent correction.

For those that are long I would definitely look to take some profit on a rally over the $14.50 level. 

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

Wow, all I can say that this price action is wicked and could easily be a widow maker.

Right now, I would look to buy a dip to the previous low at $1.22.

 

The chart is nearing seriously oversold levels.  

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

We have not been stopped on the below view, but will put in a stop under 40% as this chart is now highly overbought!

“After kicking off extremely oversold levels and making a new MT low, the chart remains at oversold levels and another leg lower to 42% will get me long. – lets see how this plays out.”

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

For those that were long in size congratulations!

I would take 50% of the cash and ride the balance as this chart still has decent upside in the coming weeks.  

This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks! – this played out very well.

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

This chart is not a true refection of the Suns market and hence I don’t have any commentary. 

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

Ok the below is all the commentary from last year and we have still not been stopped, lucky more than anything else, but as the great Gary Player says “the more I practise the luckier I get” and this chart is headed north over the next few weeks.  

I seem to have this wrong and although we are long, this chart is now grossly oversold on a weekly basis and we need to dig deep and buy more scale down with a stop under $0.52 as the rally is coming, even if its only a kick!

I feel the correction is done (it had another leg lower), and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89! – the correction was obviously not done.

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  – hope we don’t go broke before retiring. 

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

After a great trade, we will once again be looking at getting long, but are happy to stay square for now until further notice.

“I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come! – what a trade, what a call! ”

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

24 January 2022

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Good afternoon and blessings for 2022.

I have a feeling we are in for a bumpy ride this year but I would like us all to make our trading theme this year, the year of patience!

Not much has change over the last five weeks and I would STILL look to fade a rally from $6.10 – $6.25 for profit taking and further fade into a move to $6.50 getting short.  

I am not convinced that the chart will turn into massive bull market from here and that my big picture view is that the next $1.00 move will be lower rather than higher (could be famous last words).

Should my above view be correct this chart could be in for a move back towards the low $5.00’s, before becoming a serious buying opportunity once again. 

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

I REMAIN very uncertain of the ST view on this chart.

The long we had played out wonderfully, but now I feel that the chart could still look to test the high and potentially make a false break, but overall I would be looking to sell a rally of this nature.

If my above view is correct we could be in for a vicious ST bear market. 

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

For those that were long through the rally and made good cash, congratulations!

As for how this chart shapes up, I am very afraid as these double tops are as unfriendly as they could be and although the chart could still have another leg higher I would be looking to get short.  

Right now IMO any rally back over R3770 would constitute a selling opportunity. 

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

For those that were long through the rally and made good cash, congratulations!

This chart has reached its target zone perfectly and although it could still trade higher, I would be looking to sell a move over R3930!

I feel this chart is either done on the upside or has one leg higher, either way I am now looking at opportunities to get short.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

I like this chart and I would be looking at buying a move sub $8.00 – $7.44 as I can see the price heading towards $9.50 before making a significant correction!

The oscillator is also pretty low and $0.30 lower should become nicely oversold. 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

I like this chart and I would be looking at buying at best down to $7.43 as I can see the price heading towards $9.44 before making a significant correction!

The oscillator is also pretty low and $0.40 lower should become nicely oversold. 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

The chart is kicking well off oversold levels, but the overall formation seems murky to me and its with this in mind that I would look to sit on the side-line until further notice.   

Gun to the head I would look to sell a rally over $0.30!

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

 The chart seems to be making a decent correction that should look to rally over R600 higher within the next 10 weeks (has not broken higher yet).

A rally of this nature would be considered a selling opportunity, but before that enjoy the ride higher!

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

All I can say is that there is a very high probability that the correction is over and that this chart will look to target the highs and quite likely make new highs!

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

24 January 2022

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

It has been a good five weeks since I updated these charts, and wow, how the landscape has changed and how some time away is terrific for gaining a unique perspective.  

After the fear of Omicron and some technical breaks, this chart has eventually shown me its true colours.

Most of you will not like or believe my LT view, but alas, I am not here to appease but only to call it the way I see it, and what I see is R11.50 over the next 17 months.

I am convinced that the ZAR is in a multi-year corrective phase vs. the USD and that from today on, all upward spikes on this chart are well worth a short!

Now before everyone (who believes me) goes selling their house to fund a Dollar short position, be cognitive of the fact that this chart could easily have a leg higher and trade toward the R16.77 level in the coming weeks.

This could easily be attributed to Russia invading the Ukraine or China invading Taiwan or both, which should provide a risk – off environment, causing a quick and painful weakening of the ZAR.

An event of this nature should be seen for exactly what it is, an opporutunity to sell the USD and buy the ZAR.

I will be doing some ad-hoc research on this later in the week to fully explain why I strongly feel that the above view will playout.

Until then, the range is likely to be R14.88 – R15.50 and I would seriously consider owning the bottom of the range!  

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The chart has traded and tested the MT trend, this combined with being oversold has resulted in a good kick, and although I cannot buy the USD here, I would look to get long sub R15.06 – R14.88 this week should we see a spike down to these levels.  

A trade of this nature should be good for a rally of at least R0.80 if not more.

In the bigger picture the greater daily chart fits well into my weekly view.

I want everyone’s theme for 2022 to be PATIENCE, because for what I can see across all markets is that picking our spot will be more important than ever, especially as this could be the year we encounter a wedge of Black Swans.   

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

Our last trade did not work out as the chart failed miserably at R16.07.

Lucky for us stops losses are there to make sure we live to fight another day and its with this in mind that I propose the following:

Buy USD from R15.06 – R14.88, with stop loss under R14.80.

Trade targets will be R16.06 = 15/1 RR.

This view is based on the fact that I feel the chart is making an ending diagonal.   

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

The $1.1250 remains MASSIVE support and if she goes, we might print sub $1.07.  

In the ST should we see this chart move back over $1.450 – $1.16 I would sell it. 

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

We are still well within the road map and we are long at 95.32 and very patiently waiting for a move back over 100.00 in the coming months.

To say that this is a 5 day game would be an understatement as it’s far move like a 5 test series, so patience is key!

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

The chart is very range bound and all I can add from here is that the top of the range (11.40%ish) will be an amazing buy as the greater formation is starting to appear more and more like a consolidation for a seriously leg lower.  

The chart is also kicking very nicely off over sold levels. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

This chart is heading to 3.00% in my opinion.

I would buy any move back the MT trend line!

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

13 December 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

Good morning.

This will be our last report of 2021.

Merry Xmas and blessings to you and yours, I will see you in 2022.

#No Change in the commentary.

I am happy with the general long position but I would look to take some cash off the table over $13.15!

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! – I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

Nothing has changed on the below view and for those that are long I would look to fade into a rally over $13.10!

I really like what I see currently and a close over $12.95 will give us targets at $13.48 & $14.14!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

I am keen to get long on a pullback if the pullback ever comes.

I expect a re-testing of the highs. 

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

We are long at 42% and will look to buy scale down to 39.5% as this chart is now highly oversold and a kick to 43% is easily on the cards!

After kicking off extremely oversold levels and making a new MT low, the chart is remians at oversold levels and another leg lower to 42% will get me long. – lets see how this plays out. 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

#No change in the commentary

We are patiently awaiting the rally after the chart bottomed sub R7000.

This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last seven weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

#No change in commentary.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

I seem to have this wrong and although we are long, this chart is now grossly oversold on a weekly basis and we need to dig deep and buy more scale down with a stop under $0.52 as the rally is coming, even if its only a kick!

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89! – the correction was obviously not done.

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  – hope we don’t go broke before retiring. 

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!

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CJS Grains Monday Tech Magik

Grains Report

13 December 2021

Weekly Corn Continuous Close

Good morning.

This will be our last report of 2021.

Merry Xmas and blessings to you and yours, I will see you in 2022.

There REMAINS very little to add to the below view other than I would fade into a rally from $6.10 – $6.25 for profit taking and further fade into a move to $6.50 getting short.   

$5.95 remains a massive level to close above, but I feel we could be going into a complex correction that has upside targets from $6.30 – $7.35.

So I remain bullish, but I am not sure that this will be the start of the next “bull” phase, however I do see a $20 or $0.50 move higher within the next couple of weeks, so BTD’s down to $5.65!

240 Min March 22 Corn Candle Chart Close

I REMAIN very uncertain of the ST view on this chart.

I would buy at best and all the way down to Friday’s low with upside targets set at $6.18 -$6.31 which would give one around a $20.00 profit! – You should all be long now!

The above view will only be negated under $5.55.

 

Weekly WM Continuous Close

Onward and upward!

A rally over R3650 would trigger me to take profits!

“We would look to start buying back sub R3250.’ – we hope you picked up some stock as this is from 3 weeks ago.  

The big pullbacks are still decent buying opportunities.” – I cannot stress this enough!

 

Weekly YM Continuous Close

PLEASE take profit once we get near the target area and DO NOT get married to the long position. – we are nearly there!!!!

The below view is still in place but I would advise putting in a stop profit should we have a daily close under R3610 on the Mar 2022 contract.

This chart is headed to its targets, and well done to those who believed in BTD’s.

There are zero reasons to pick a top on this chart and do not get caught short over the next week, but instead wait to buy.  

Weekly KC Wheat Continuous Close

Although wheat has a bullish story, the chart can stuff around and take all your money before rallying again.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Weekly Chicago SRW Wheat Continuous

Although wheat has a bullish story, the chart can stuff around and take all your money before rallying again.

At this stage we are super happy to hang back and allow this chart to play out. 

 

Daily Close KC Wheat v Chicago SRW Continuous Close

My current bias is to look for a selling opportunity as I feel the next big move will be lower.

I will sell at best all the way up with a stop over the high! 

Weekly SAF Wheat Continuous Close

#No change in the commentary.

After a significant drop, the chart has recovered nicely

However this does not mean we are keen buyers and in fact should we see a rally toward the previous highs I would be looking to get short.  

Daily Matif Wheat Continuous Close

#No change in the commentary.

I would sell this chart at €293 – €312 size as this correction is far from over!

 

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CJS FX and FI Monday Tech Magik

FX & FI Technicals

13 December 2021

Dollar/Rand Weekly Close

Firstly, this will be the last report until the new year, and with that, I wish you and your families a blessed Xmas, and may 2022 be a year of happiness and prosperity.  

Weekly, very little has changed, although the chart looks to have completed its pullback to the high R15.60’s.

The Weekly Close remains bullish until we have a close under R15.35 and its with this in mind that I would look to get long from R15.70 – R15.35.  

The only thing that I do not like about this chart is that currently we are sitting at overbought levels.

This however can last longer than your patience and squeeze you out of your positions as we are working on a weekly close.   

 

Dollar/Rand Daily Candle

The chart remains strictly bullish, and the pullback could easily be completed having traded into the “pullback zone.”

Should this chart trade under R15.47 the bullish technical action would be negated.

This chart is super volatile and R0.25 intra day moves are the norm, so again please keep your stops tight and only ever trade when you are comfortable and not because you have FOMO!

 

 

Dollar/Rand 240 min Candle

The R16.20 sell trade never materialized.

However, we have a new trade on the cards that I have high hopes and  a firm conviction!

Buy R15.88 – R15.73 with a stop under R15.66 with targets at R16.48.

This trade will have a RR of 46/10.

As always keep your stops tight, with zero emotion!

If this plays out the bottom of the cloud should provide some serious support

 

Euro/USD Weekly Close

#No change in the commentary.

The $1.1250 proves just how massive a support level it is, and if she goes, we might print sub $1.10 before this chart even thinks about kicking.  

As things stand though, it is very unclear whether or not this chart is completing a correction that will turn up from current levels or if it is taking a breather, but what I do know that a pullback from here is on the cards no matter the greater outcome.  

 

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Candle

We are STILL waiting patiently to see if the below plays out.

The only thing I can add to the below is that if the last candle plays out this chart might have had a false break.

But it is early days and should take 3 – 6 weeks to playout.

We are long at 95.32 and will keep a tight stop under 95.

The road map is playing out very well and the sky is the limit. 

 

 

SA Government Bond 30 Year Yield Daily Close

#No Change in the commentary.

HUGE double tops!!!!

However, as it stands I can still see 11.40% printing within the next 4 – 8 weeks.

Expect the 11% level to provide massive resistance! – this has aged pretty well. 

 

US Government Bond 30 Year Yield Weekly Close

All I can say is the chart is kicking nicely after being super oversold.

I have no strong view and will need the chart to play out over the next few weeks. 

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CJS Oilseeds Monday Tech Magik

Oilseeds Report

06 December 2021

Weekly CBOT Soybean Continuous Close

I am happy with the general long position but I would look to take some cash off the table over $13.15!

One should use the volatility to play the ranges with a bias to building a decent long sub $12.00! – I hope many of you played ball sub $12.00 as we printed $11.84.

Most should be long at seriously good levels sub $12.00 and feeling very comfortable.

We just need to ride out the next few weeks before the rally continues in earnest! 

240 Min CBOT January 22 Soybean Candle Chart

Nothing has changed on the below view and for those that are long I would look to fade into a rally over $13.10!

I really like what I see currently and close over $12.95 will give us targets at $13.48 & $14.14!

Board Crush Continuous Daily Close

With the below view playing out very nicely, I am keen to get long on a pullback but will give the chart another week to play out.

This chart has had a great pullback to it’s support and with the oscillator coming off oversold levels, I expect a re-testing of the highs. 

 

Oil Share Continuous Daily Close

After kicking off extremely oversold levels and making a new MT low, the chart is back at oversold level and another leg lower to 42% will get me long. 

Weekly SAF Soy Continuous Close

We are patiently awaiting the rally after the chart bottomed sub R7000.

This chart looks great, and I expect a move to over R8000 in the coming weeks!

One should use weakness to price daily! – this has been the staple over the last seven weeks. 

Weekly SAF Suns Continuous Close

I am so over spot market suns and cant wait for it to go off the board.

I would advise having no part in this if you do not already have a position as both longs and shorts could see their wallets emptied.    

Weekly CBOT Soy Oil Continuous Close

I remain bullish and all I can say from here is that patience will be the key to unlocking profit.

The chart is approaching oversold levels with nothing having changed on the below view.  

I feel the correction is done, (I feel good about this one) and all the pullbacks from here are buying opportunities with upside targets between $0.85 -$0.89!

I almost feel that we don’t have enough cash to get as long as we should, buy at best and scale down, this is budget making stuff with sprinkling of retirement!!!!  

Weekly CBOT SBM Continuous Close

#No change in the below commentary

I love the chart, and after confirming a low, all the pullbacks are a chance to BTFD’s!

$400 + here we come!